By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy.
Explicit support for a June hike:
- Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
3 June 2026
If the US and Iran were to reach a peace deal, the debate “might be a bit less easy. But there is probably still a case for hiking, it’s just a bit less strong.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 June 2026
“I think there is no need to surprise the markets and not make decisions. In my opinion, we have a 25bp interest rate increase in place.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“I do not think we are likely to see better news on the inflation front that would remove the case for hiking in June. So, the scenarios that would lead me not to support a hike are unlikely.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
27 May 2026
“The most likely development is a rate hike in June.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“Given the size and the persistence of the current shock, looking through is no longer an option in my view … Even if the war ended today, a lot of damage has already been done to energy infrastructure and global supply chains. So, even then, I believe that a monetary policy reaction would be needed … From today’s perspective, I think a rate hike in June will be needed.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
23 May 2026
“If the situation continues and we don’t [hike], it’s going to be problematic … For the credibility of the ECB and our reaction function, we will probably have to raise rates in June.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
22 May 2026
“[T]here’s a good case to be made” for a rate hike in June. - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“In June we probably might need to hike.” - Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
20 May 2026
“I've already said, I guess, even a number of weeks ago, that if the conflict is not resolved by June, that I think the likelihood of a hike is quite high.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
19 May 2026
“[I]f we believe that 2% inflation is unattainable, then an interest rate hike is necessary.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
19 May 2026
“There is a higher probability now that we are now away from the baseline scenario, and that means that maybe we have to do something.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“Interest rate hikes will become increasingly likely if the inflation picture does not change fundamentally.” - Christodoulos Patsalides (Central Bank of Cyprus)
11 May 2026
“As things stand, things are worsening. So, things are pointing to a raise in interest rates.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
4 May 2026
“I think the most likely decision, the direction of interest rates, is sufficiently obvious. It is obvious that we are talking about a possible increase in interest rates in June.” - Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
4 May 2026
“On this basis, policy tightening is all but inevitable. It has been a part of our baseline since March and the events have, sadly, not surprised us in a positive way.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
1 May 2026
“From today’s perspective, the situation is evolving less favorably than in the earlier baseline scenario. This makes it all the more appropriate for the Governing Council to respond in June if the outlook does not improve markedly.”
June hike seen as possible:
- Christine Lagarde (ECB)
30 April 2026
“So, given that position, we believe that these six weeks will be the right time to assess the development, to understand in particular the outcome, possibly, of the conflict, or if there is no outcome – that in and of itself will be informative – in order to make an informed decision on verified and revisited information that we will receive in the next six weeks.”
Signals pointing toward tightening:
- Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
18 May 2026
“Unless the economy suffers another much deeper shock, for example energy shortages, then the direction of the policy rate is relatively clear.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
7 May 2026
“It is clear that we now need heightened attention here, and it is also important to signal that the ECB is completely determined to fight the inflation that has now emerged and not to wait too long.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
2 May 2026
Over the course of the next six weeks “we will come to a crossroads.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
1 May 2026
“[I]t is worth being prepared that in the near future the European Central Bank Governing Council may nevertheless be forced to raise interest rates.”
Soft hints at future action:
- Frank Elderson (ECB)
3 June 2026
“There’s a clear deterioration. So, I think that the likelihood of us being able to look through this energy prices shock has become increasingly low.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
31 May 2026
“I think it is better to act earlier than later, so that we do not then have second-round effects that are much greater. When there are possible inflationary spirals, I prefer that we act more rapidly and decisively.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
29 May 2026
“The cost of acting too late can exceed the cost of acting somewhat earlier.” - Fabio Panetta (Banca d’Italia)
29 May 2026
“[T]he forward-looking picture seems to call for a recalibration of the monetary policy stance to counter the risk of persistent inflationary tensions.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
27 May 2026
“It’s clear to me that we’re coming to an important meeting.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
24 May 2026
“There are always scenarios with very low probabilities that lead to a different assessment of the situation, but at the moment, everything points to us deciding between holding and raising rates.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“By our June meeting, we will have a comprehensive forecast update and more information on both inflation and underlying inflation developments, as well as developments in the Middle East.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
12 May 2026
“The prospects of looking through this shock appear to be fading now, given the prolongation of the conflict and the prospects of oil prices remaining higher for longer … We are committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at 2% in the medium term. This could require one rate hike. It could require more.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
9 May 2026
“What defines the current circumstances is massive uncertainty. We have established that our decision will be based on the depth, duration and repercussions of the crisis we are suffering. Before taking any decision, we need more data, to understand more where prices are heading … We are constantly divided by the risk of reacting too quickly and the risk of reacting too late. We have to find the right path for our economy to navigate toward the 2% medium-term inflation target, which is our goal … We do not want to act either too early or too late, but just in time.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“We will have a much clearer picture of underlying inflation momentum in the months ahead as more data comes in.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
1 May 2026
“[W]e will re-examine the situation at upcoming meetings. More data will then be available, the course of the war may also be clearer, and we will be able to analyze the effects of the shock through the prism of updated macroeconomic projections.”
Readiness to tighten if needed:
- Olaf Sleijpen (De Nederlandsche Bank)
26 May 2026
“The ECB will, of course, do everything in its power to ensure that inflation returns to price stability.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
25 May 2026
“[W]e won’t hesitate to take action to achieve this [2% inflation in the medium term] if necessary.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
13 May 2026
“However, we will still closely monitor developments in the Middle East and, depending on the situation, reconsider our decision at future Council meetings.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
8 May 2026
“The Governing Council is aware of the increasing risks to price stability and is very vigilant. We will do what is necessary to prevent the energy-driven price increase from spreading and becoming entrenched.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“We are committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at our 2% target in the medium term.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
1 May 2026
“We are aware of the risks to price stability and are ready to act at any time.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
1 May 2026
“There is also no doubt in the Governing Council of the European Central Bank that it is prepared to make the necessary decisions to achieve the target ... However, I have no doubt that the European Central Bank is ready to respond and continue to do whatever is necessary to maintain the purchasing power of the euro.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
1 May 2026
“The ECB Governing Council is able to act at any time and ready to adjust the monetary policy stance quickly and decisively if this is necessary.”
Conditional tightening signals:
- Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
25 May 2026
“In the event of a significant but temporary overshoot of the inflation target, the response should be balanced: a cautious adjustment of monetary policy in a more restrictive direction is capable of limiting the intensity of second-round effects, without disproportionately damaging economic activity.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
24 May 2026
“And it’s clear to me that if the situation doesn’t improve, we will have to focus our discussions on acting.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
20 May 2026
“If the economy is growing strongly, if we have pressure on price growth, we will have to raise interest rates.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
16 May 2026
“A significant but temporary excess over the inflation target would mean a measured adjustment of monetary policy in a more restrictive direction in the near future, in order to limit the intensity of second-round effects, without disproportionately affecting economic activity.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
“Oil prices are higher, we see that it’s gradually starting to push inflation up, and if inflation expectations start to deteriorate, then the ECB will be forced to raise interest rates.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
13 May 2026
“[A] sufficiently material and persistent deviation from the target requires a monetary policy response: a mid-size but not-too-persistent overshoot could warrant some measured adjustment of the policy stance, while if the inflation shock is expected to be larger and more persistent, the response must be appropriately forceful or persistent.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
13 May 2026
“You would need a very fast and positive solution in the Hormuz Strait and the Middle East so energy prices clearly and more persistently begin falling again.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“So, if things do not change for the better in terms of price developments, there is at some stage, in the not-so-distant future, a necessity to rethink our monetary policy stance … The next decision will be taken in June, and if things do not improve, if prices continue to be high or rise, it is difficult to keep interest rates at the level we have until the end of the year.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“If a shock causes a large but temporary excess of inflation over the target, monetary policy may need to be tightened moderately to maintain credibility. The response need not be as strong as if inflation were due to too strong demand. Citizens could find it difficult to understand the actions of the central bank if it does not react to clearly elevated inflation.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“Should the effects [of the energy price shock] prove large or persistent, and especially if they threaten to de-anchor long-term inflation expectations, our mandate requires to act.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
11 May 2026
“If the situation does not improve clearly, however, there will be no way around a rate move in the near term.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
7 May 2026
“If the energy shock broadens, monetary policy will need to tighten to contain the risk of second-round effects threatening medium-term price stability. This risk has increased in recent weeks.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
7 May 2026
“But if nothing improves, then we must indeed also think concretely about how things can continue, and that would mean interest rate hikes at some point over the next few months.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
7 May 2026
“If the outlook does not improve noticeably, I would expect us to raise interest rates in June.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
4 May 2026
“If the inflation outlook does not improve markedly there, this argues for a rate hike.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
3 May 2026
“If it [the energy shock] leads to a significant and persistent deviation of inflation from the target, then the response must be robust.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
2 May 2026
“If signs of a price-wage spiral arise and inflation expectations begin to rise, monetary policy will have to react quickly and decisively.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
1 May 2026
“At the same time, there is a risk that even a shorter-lasting shock could cause inflation to rise more sharply than expected, thus keeping prices elevated for an extended period. In this case, it would be best for monetary policy to intervene early and decisively with an interest rate hike.”
Further or larger hikes:
- Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
3 June 2026
“I don’t have very strong feelings” regarding the post-June evolution of monetary policy. - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
1 June 2026
It is “too early to say that it’s a certain number of hikes and then it’s done. We really have to see what’s going to happen.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
31 May 2026
“I would not be so categorical [about assuming a hike could be followed by another increase].” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“After the first move, I think it is right to collect more data and not feel constrained by a very limited timeframe to act again immediately. In September we will have new projections, which will broaden the assessment of the economy with new data. I still think a second hike is more likely than not. But I do not think we are now in a position to say whether it would be July, September or October … I do not think we are in that situation [where some people could want to hike by 50bp in June]. We have considerably more market-based and survey-based information than hard data, and the evidence of second-round effects is still very limited. Perhaps someone will want to discuss it. We will see. But I personally think 50bp at this point would be too much. We don’t have to catch up.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
26 May 2026
“I don’t think we need a complete vision for the future by June, because the vision for the future will depend on the incoming data.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
No need to raise interest rates very far from the current 2%. - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“It is early to talk about a potential second hike. For now, we are discussing holding or hiking, and whenever that takes place, we will see what happens afterwards. It is true that economically speaking, the effect of one 25bp hike is not huge. On the other hand, it is a clear signal if it happens, and then we will see and analyze its impact in the data … A 50bp hike in June is a very unlikely scenario from today’s perspective. Of course, no one knows what’s going to happen over the next couple of weeks. But still, I see a 50bp hike as a very unlikely scenario … I think if there was a hike in June and we do not have any very unexpected developments, then September could be the natural next point, when the new projection is published and the data are in. Just for practical reasons, but it is too soon to talk about this now.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“If inflation is expected to deviate significantly and for a long time from the target, the central bank must react decisively and, if necessary, for a long time. Otherwise, there is a risk that inflation will start to feed itself and inflation expectations will drift away from the target.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“Nice try [answer to a question about the possibility of a 50bp hike]. The Governing Council will decide how to proceed further in June.” - Christodoulos Patsalides (Central Bank of Cyprus)
11 May 2026
“Moving in June, that doesn’t mean that we are entering a new cycle.”
Calls for prudence/no rush:
- Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
2 June 2026
“In this context, monetary policy will act with a steady hand and ensure price stability, thus supporting sustainable growth and job creation.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
31 May 2026
“There is no predetermined decision for June.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“There is still insufficient certainty about how the situation will develop. However, the objective is clear: the Governing Council of the ECB is committed to keeping inflation stable around 2% over the medium term, and monetary policy will be conducted with a steady hand in this situation as well.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
11 May 2026
“I think that we have to wait before deciding on the next interest rate move. We need more clarity about the conflict in Iran … Even if we have a truce or a peace agreement soon, the conflict is going to leave a mark because some infrastructure has been destroyed.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
7 May 2026
“I have read a great deal of speculation and several statements about the timing of our next interest rate hike at the ECB; this strikes me as looking a bit too much like disguised forward guidance.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
5 May 2026
“If we see such second-round effects, we’ll act and raise rates to prevent inflation becoming broad and sustainable. For the moment, we don’t have sufficient signs of this propagation.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
4 May 2026
“Faced with this situation, monetary policy must be both prudent and vigilant: ready to act without hesitation to prevent the spread of rising energy prices through second-round effects, but only after gathering sufficient data on these risks of diffusion.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
4 May 2026
“Given that today we are at a more or less neutral level with central bank interest rates, this also gives us the opportunity not to rush our decisions and to see what the actual developments will be.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
3 May 2026
“We are now in the midst of a geopolitical conflict and we have to keep a cool head. That’s why I fully agree with Thursday’s decision.”
Baseline vs adverse scenario:
- Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“Prices are currently between the baseline and the adverse. But if you look at developments over longer horizons, you’ll see that the current oil futures curve stands above the adverse scenario.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
21 May 2026
The euro area is sliding toward the ECB’s adverse scenario. - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
19 May 2026
“We are moving away from the baseline scenario. This is a fair description of where we are at the moment.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
18 May 2026
The conflict is “dragging on longer and the price level for oil is higher than we had expected in the baseline,” thus pushing the outlook “more towards the adverse scenario.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
“Short-term outlook for energy prices” showed that “we are moving away from the March 2026 baseline.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“The baseline is still the one [scenario] we are closest to, but we are currently a bit worse than the baseline. We are not close to the adverse scenario, but the longer it takes, the closer we get.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“We are already no longer in the Eurosystem staff projections’ baseline scenario, but moving in the direction of the adverse scenario.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
9 May 2026
“We are between the baseline scenario and the adverse one. The price of oil is higher today than in the baseline scenario, but the price of gas is lower. We have to adjust constantly and update the scenarios to deal with this uncertainty.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
7 May 2026
“At the moment, I assume that inflation will average around 2.7% for the year. Under adverse circumstances, it could be even higher.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“I am concerned about a higher-for-longer energy price scenario … Oil prices are fluctuating in a wide range roughly between the baseline from the ECB staff projections in March ($90 peak in Q2 2026, before gradually easing) and the adverse scenario ($119/barrel). The baseline-adverse range for gas prices was a peak of €50-€87/MWh, before falling back. At the time of writing gas spot prices are just below the bottom of this range.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
1 May 2026
“From today’s perspective, the situation is evolving less favorably than in the earlier baseline scenario.”
Market expectations:
- Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
27 May 2026
“My view is that markets making those assumptions indicates in part that they understand that we are determined to maintain price stability and we will take whatever action we need to achieve the 2% target.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“What I can say is that the baseline scenario that we had in March incorporated market expectations of two rate hikes.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
21 May 2026
“Market forces have priced in some rate hikes, but our policies are not dictated by the market forces. We take our decisions independently.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
19 May 2026
Financial conditions are now tighter and are already having an impact on inflation. - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
Financial markets are expecting a rate hike. - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“It is also clear that, in the projections for the baseline scenario, there are two rate hikes baked in before year-end.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“The market is constantly pricing in different interest rate paths, and the current pricing is reflected in tightening financial conditions. As the chart shows, the Iran war has raised market interest rates. However, the ECB does not commit to any interest rate path in advance and is not in control of market expectations. We make decisions at each meeting based on the latest data and an overall assessment. Our decision-making is guided in particular by inflation developments and related risks, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, i.e. how the ECB's decisions affect other economic developments.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“And it should be noted that two interest rate hikes had already been factored into the baseline scenario because these had been priced in by markets in March.” - Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
4 May 2026
“In the meantime, financing conditions have already been tightening. This signals that the markets understand how we think and how we are going to react.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
1 May 2026
“Let’s not forget that the baseline scenario already entails a more restrictive monetary policy.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
30 April 2026
“I would observe that there has been recently some financial tightening, which is also doing part of the work … And, as I said, the financial tightening is happening. So, for all those reasons, we want to give ourselves the time, the depth and the necessary analysis to determine in June what is necessary in order to reach our 2% target.”
Credibility arguments for tightening:
- Pierre Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)
3 June 2026
“At some point, we cannot let the market do all the lifting. We need to take a stance … My concern is that if we wait to check all the boxes in a meeting by-meeting approach and set a very high bar for hiking, we may end up acting too late,” which could undermine the ECB’s credibility and lead to higher inflation expectations over time. - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 June 2026
“Markets have already priced in a couple of hikes this year and a significant part of that dampening effect on the economy is already factored in and is reflected to a greater or lesser extent in economic developments and decisions.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“The path [to 2% inflation in the ECB’s projections] currently includes hikes. So, the relevant question is what the inflation path would look like without a hike. I do not mean that we simply follow the interest rate path embedded in the projections, and I am also not saying that market expectations steer us. But given the many signals of inflation pressure, I think a hike in June would be a prudent monetary policy response … The ECB has credibility, and we will do what is needed to make sure inflation is at 2% in the medium term. That potentially requires a hike in June.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
27 May 2026
“[I]t would be a big mistake if the evidence said don’t put up rates and we do so only because the market thinks so.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“We never comment explicitly on market expectations. It’s us who steer the market. It’s not the market steering us. I think it’s important that our reaction function is well understood by markets … Markets reflect expectations about our policy, but they cannot do our job. If we judge that these expectations are appropriate, then eventually we will have to act. Otherwise there will be a disconnect between our actual reaction function and what markets believe our reaction function is.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
23 May 2026
“For the credibility of the ECB and our reaction function, we will probably have to raise rates in June.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“In June we probably might need to hike … It’s about preserving credibility, we can’t be seen to be behind the curve.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
21 May 2026
Entering the adverse scenario could force the ECB to hike rates “for the sake of credibility.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
“Financial markets have tightened financing conditions, supporting policy transmission, but for sustained effects this needs to be reinforced by monetary policy.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“To some degree, ECB communication has contributed to the right perception of the situation. If you look at credit, you see tightening by markets, not by our decisions. But you cannot rely on that forever. If the shock is large enough and more persistent, ultimately the ECB has to take action.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
1 May 2026
“Despite the accelerated price increases following the outbreak of war in Iran, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank was able to refrain from raising interest rates this week, partly because longer-term interest rates have already risen in financial markets. This means that the tightening of financing conditions, which is necessary to counter price pressures, has taken place without direct intervention by the central bank. However, this so-called advance effect loses its power if central bank interest rates remain unchanged for a longer period of time.”
Insurance hike:
- Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
2 June 2026
“Against this backdrop, while inflation risks have increased, a rate increase in June would be an insurance one, but not due to entrenched inflationary pressures … In such circumstances [if inflation rises more significantly and for longer than expected, but without broad-based second-round effects] vigilance would be required, and the policy rate could, if deemed warranted, be increased as an insurance to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored. But it would not imply a start of a hiking cycle or lead to a more forceful monetary policy response.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“I do not think of this as an insurance hike.”
Inflation expectations:
- Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
2 June 2026
“The way I see the changes in short-term price expectations of consumers and not only consumers - they are more reminiscent not of what was half a year ago, but of what was in 2022, when we had a fairly strong inflationary shock.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
2 June 2026
“If we were to see convincing evidence that inflation expectations were becoming de-anchored and that wage-setting behavior was adjusting to persistently higher inflation, then monetary policy would need to respond decisively and quickly.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
1 June 2026
“The risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations is rising.” - Dimitar Radev (Bulgarian National Bank)
29 May 2026
“The trade-off at this stage is not symmetric when there is a risk that inflation expectations could become less firmly anchored.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“Short-term inflation expectations have moved quite a bit. That reflects the 2022 inflation episode. If you look at the data, consumer price expectations for the next 12 months in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey have gone up. Selling-price expectations in industry, retail trade, services and construction have also gone up. In a way, it is natural to see short-term expectations rise. Memories of the previous inflation episode are still vivid. Households react quickly to what they see at gas stations, in utility bills and in food stores. We do not want to see any larger move in medium- to long-term expectations, which are still anchored, even if one can see some movements there too.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“A second important indicator is inflation expectations. All surveys and market indicators are showing that short-term inflation expectations have gone up sharply. What is more worrisome is that in our Consumer Expectations Survey, inflation expectations have also increased over the medium term and there has been a shift in the distribution of inflation expectations to the right. So, there has been a bit of a fattening of the right tail of the distribution. This has often been interpreted as an early indicator that the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations is increasing. This must be monitored very carefully.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
25 May 2026
“So far, we have not yet seen this spillover effect, but we are extremely vigilant regarding the risk of rising inflation expectations.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“The good news is that we’re still seeing underlying inflation returning toward 2%, there is not much evidence of indirect effects and medium- to long-term expectations have remained quite well anchored.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
21 May 2026
“[W]e see some vibration in the short-term inflation expectations, but no significant deviation in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
13 May 2026
“The increase in selling price expectations in recent firm surveys suggest that the input cost pressures will map into higher output prices in the coming months at least in some sector but the scale and breadth of the price increases remains uncertain.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
13 May 2026
“The Governing Council notes that current inflation expectations are currently still under control, and higher energy prices have only limited indirect effects on the rest of the economy for the time being.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“Five-year expectations have fortunately remained stable, but two- to three-year expectations have ticked up. That is something we will watch closely.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“[I]nflation expectations, especially over the medium term, are still anchored close to the ECB's 2% target based on market prices. This is also the message conveyed by professional forecasters, although on the other hand, consumer inflation expectations show a slight increase. There are still risks, especially if the situation is prolonged. The high inflation of 2022 is still fresh in people's minds, which may weaken the anchoring of inflation expectations. If expectations rise, the shock will more easily expand from a short-term price spike to broader inflationary pressures.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“Short-term inflation expectations, for example, have already moved away from our inflation target.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
11 May 2026
“Inflation expectations have not been unsettling so far either, even if you look at the future curve of oil. Markets are discounting an increase in the short term, but expect prices to come back to close to the pre-conflict level afterwards.” - Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
4 May 2026
“Short‑term inflation expectations have risen steeply, but movements in longer-term expectations have been small. The memory of the high inflation years is fresh but so is our success in guiding inflation back to target. We face the current challenges from the position of stability.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“In the meantime, inflation expectations need to be closely monitored for signs of de-anchoring.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
1 May 2026
“Furthermore, there is a risk that medium-term inflation expectations will rise. This is particularly relevant at present because many people are paying more attention to inflation today than before. Until 2022, an entire generation had little experience with high inflation. Since then, its negative consequences have become very apparent to many.”
Second-round inflation effects:
- Frank Elderson (ECB)
3 June 2026
“[W]e don’t see these second-round effects yet. But it is true that the longer this war goes on, and the longer and the more intense this shock is, the more likely it becomes that that [will] actually [be] the case.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
31 May 2026
“If these second-round effects are significant and prolonged, it is natural that inflation will be more prolonged.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“[T]he evidence of second-round effects is still very limited.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
28 May 2026
“Even if the initial shock starts to reverse, the second-round [effects] will be with us for a while.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
27 May 2026
“As I said, I haven’t seen sort of second-round effects, but I have heard people starting to talk about them.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“We are seeing increasing signs that the shock is spilling over to other parts of the consumption basket. We are looking at a number of indicators. One key indicator is firms’ selling price expectations. According to the European Commission survey, there is a sharp increase across sectors in the share of firms planning to raise their selling prices over the coming three months, faster than in 2022. This is also confirmed by the rise in output prices in the Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs).” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“The good news is that we’re still seeing underlying inflation returning toward 2%, there is not much evidence of indirect effects and medium- to long-term expectations have remained quite well anchored.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
19 May 2026
“The probability is rising that we will see more inflation everywhere and this is something we have to take into consideration, and we will do this in our next meeting.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
“The longer the shock persists, the greater the risk of second-round effects and inflation expectations climbing up.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“Since there have not been many wage negotiations lately in Europe, it is hard to say [whether the shock evokes memory effects for consumers and firms]. When it comes to price increases outside directly affected economic sectors, there is anecdotal evidence of second-round effects, but not much more, yet. There should be no doubt that we will decisively fight medium-term inflation above 2%, but expectations rather quickly could change given the nature of the shock.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
13 May 2026
Underlying inflation is “extremely well controlled” … “The central bank must be ready to intervene to prevent second-round effects.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“The data on wage developments is also reassuring so far. Indicators describing wage developments continue to point to a gradual slowdown, and wage agreements signed after the outbreak of the Iran war do not show any change in dynamics so far. Although we estimate that wage growth will accelerate slightly towards the end of the year, this is typical and largely due to the timing of last year's one-off payments. We will still be keeping a particularly close eye on new wage solutions, especially after the energy shock.” - Christodoulos Patsalides (Central Bank of Cyprus)
11 May 2026
“Persistent rising prices increase the risk of infiltration into core inflation.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
7 May 2026
“[I]f we see … that higher costs are being passed through and that the wages do increase, that is then the sign that monetary policy has to react not only to send a signal, but actually to constrain aggregate demand by making it harder to pass through the higher cost and to negotiate higher wages in the end.” - François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
7 May 2026
“Our attention should be focused on second-round effects, and for that purpose on three key indicators: core inflation, both current and projected; medium-term inflation expectations, in particular those of households and firms; and developments in wages.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
4 May 2026
“Perhaps second-round effects are not yet being observed, but the longer and more intensively the war develops, the more it would have effects, including secondary and indirect effects, on the entire economy and price growth.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“Potential second-round effects via wages will take longer to show up, given the staggered nature of wage-setting in Europe.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
1 May 2026
“It is therefore possible that we will be confronted with longer-lasting inflation. At the same time, it is still too early to see a broader increase in prices or second-round effects in the available data.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
30 April 2026
“[W]e are not seeing second-round effects. We are seeing direct effects, granted. We are seeing some indirect effects, but we are certainly not seeing second-round effects. And that is something that we need to be very attentive to. We are receiving not contrarian but inconsistent information. When I read the results of the corporate telephone survey, for instance, there is no intention on the part of the corporate leaders to significantly increase wages. There is a labor market that is more fluid than it was.”
Indirect effects:
- Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
27 May 2026
“We are seeing effects [from the Middle East conflict], we are seeing indirect effects.” - Philip Lane (ECB)
26 May 2026
“The question is, are they [indirect effects like a rise in airline prices] limited or do they become more significant? We’re still in monitoring mode.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“The good news is that we’re still seeing underlying inflation returning toward 2%, there is not much evidence of indirect effects and medium- to long-term expectations have remained quite well anchored.” - Primož Dolenc (Banka Slovenije)
13 May 2026
“The Governing Council notes that current inflation expectations are currently still under control, and higher energy prices have only limited indirect effects on the rest of the economy for the time being.” - Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
1 May 2026
“We have seen the direct effects of this shock in higher energy prices. Going forward, I will be paying close attention to indirect effects, that is how higher energy prices are contributing to cost-push inflation in production, transportation, and services.”
Inflation projections:
- Philip Lane (ECB)
26 May 2026
“On net, I still think that there has been upward pressure on inflation. We are likely to make a further upward adjustment to the inflation forecast in June.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
24 May 2026
Inflation forecasts contained in the March projections “will probably be revised” in June.
Economic growth:
- Luis de Guindos (ECB)
31 May 2026
“[W]e are facing a global supply shock that will be reflected first in inflation and then in growth.” - Álvaro Santos Pereira (Banco de Portugal)
31 May 2026
“I am more worried about inflation than about a significant slowdown of the economy.” - Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“We need to react carefully, because the economy itself can act as a natural disinflationary force. But I still think a hike is needed … A 25bp hike is still limited, relative to the economy as a whole. We should also not forget that, via market expectations, the potential hike has already been partly passed through to the economy. That is, the economy is already feeling it. So, I would not overemphasize the direct impact on the economy of a 25bp hike, or even of 50bp of tightening over the course of this year, for which the same argument applies.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
27 May 2026
“[A] careful adjustment of monetary policy in a more restrictive direction is capable of limiting the intensity of second-round effects without disproportionately harming economic activity.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
27 May 2026
The effects of the current shock on consumption and demand “could temper a bit inflationary pressures.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
27 May 2026
Policymakers must “take into consideration the impact on growth,” as “soft indicators, sentiment indicators … clearly point at an important impact on growth.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
26 May 2026
“Given the high persistence of the shock, I believe that the negative impact on economic growth will also be stronger. And this is also what is suggested by incoming data. We have seen a sharp decline in confidence indicators, especially among consumers. Consumption growth may turn out to be weaker than we projected in March, even if past savings constitute a certain buffer. The latest PMI data were also not good. The data show a significant slowdown in services, which matter a lot for the euro area economy. Manufacturing is still expanding, which could partly be due to stockpiling, also in anticipation of shortages and higher prices.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
25 May 2026
“This is an extremely delicate balance for monetary policy: on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% medium-term objective, while on the other hand, it is necessary to avoid an overly restrictive monetary policy stance that could further burden economic activity and investment.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
24 May 2026
“It appears that the economy – though this is still very anecdotal and should be viewed with great caution – is relatively resilient. But we really need to wait and see how the projections play out.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
23 May 2026
“The fact that the PMI is so weak won’t help us much. There are so many rigidities in the economy.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
22 May 2026
“Downside risks have increased given the conflict has now lasted for three months, and recent signals haven’t been great in terms of prospects for economic activity.” - Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
20 May 2026
“If we see that the economy is entering a phase of slowing growth or even recession, it is clear that we will have to lower interest rates … If the economy is growing strongly, if we have pressure on price growth, we will have to raise interest rates.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
18 May 2026
There are some signs that the economy can contract enough to offset inflation and require easier monetary policy. - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
13 May 2026
“The level of today’s energy prices probably means slower economic recovery and growth but we haven’t fallen into stagflation.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“The European economy has proved resilient despite the crises. Demand is weaker than in 2022, but not very weak. If the economy stays resilient, the demand side could also contribute at some stage to stronger price developments.” - Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
13 May 2026
“If the price increase is temporary, it is generally not advisable for the central bank to react strongly with monetary policy. The effects of monetary policy come with a lag, so reacting too quickly could come too late and even worsen the economic situation.” - Joachim Nagel (Deutsche Bundesbank)
12 May 2026
“I see no reason to make that assumption [that there’s a risk of recession due to the ECB acting too early after its late response in 2022]. In 2022 we emerged from the pandemic, and then Russia’s war of aggression began in February of the same year. We halted net asset purchases under the bond programs before raising rates for the first time – and I still think that was the right sequence of events.” - Alexander Demarco (Central Bank of Malta)
12 May 2026
“If we arrive at that point [escalation of the crisis to the point of fuel rationing], then there is, of course, a real risk of recession, but at this juncture we are not there.” - Christodoulos Patsalides (Central Bank of Cyprus)
11 May 2026
“The question is whether these rising prices will emigrate into the demand side of the equation, in which case the ECB and monetary policy would have an impact.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
11 May 2026
“My impression is that the data on growth over the coming weeks are not going to be good. Bear in mind that an energy shock is usually reflected in inflation indicators much more rapidly than in growth indicators … Regardless of concrete elements that push up energy prices, the impact on sentiment is something we have underestimated at times.” - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
11 May 2026
“After a long phase of stagnation and in some cases recession, the economic situation had stabilized and sentiment had improved. This recovery is now at risk, and at the same time there are elevated inflation risks … The risk of a stagflationary development can thus not be ruled out, even though the economy and the labor market remain resilient. The duration of the conflict will be decisive.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
8 May 2026
“[A]s far as inflation is concerned, the latest indicators clearly show the rise in energy prices, whereas activity indicators have not yet reflected it to the same extent, as they tend to react with a bit more delay … What has already been reflected, however, are sentiment indicators. Consumer confidence in Europe has fallen sharply, and the services PMI also declined very noticeably in March and April.” - Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
7 May 2026
“If the economy already entered the recession … the pricing power of the firms will be relatively limited and the ability to pass through the high cost to the prices will be limited. And that could mean that the policy response is not needed.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
4 May 2026
“The current economic situation is highly uncertain in light of the war in the Middle East, and energy markets remain volatile.” - Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
3 May 2026
“Concerns about the possibility of a recession in the euro zone are real and justified, given the new negative supply-side disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East … In contrast to 2022, the rise in inflation is occurring in an environment of already weaker growth, tighter financial conditions and reduced fiscal space, which limits policy space and makes economies more vulnerable.” - Luis de Guindos (ECB)
3 May 2026
“In economics, we sometimes forget that when energy prices rise, the effect on inflation shows up in the indicators faster than the effect on economic growth. The impact of the war wasn’t yet reflected in the data for the first quarter, for Europe as a whole or for Spain, but forward-looking indicators are starting to show that it is going to have a strong impact. Confidence, for example, has deteriorated very significantly.” - Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
1 May 2026 - “It is clear that economic growth in the euro area will remain slower than previously expected in the near term due to the war in Iran. This is indicated by both the weakened expectations of companies for order growth and the sharply deteriorated consumer confidence, which is why consumption may also be more modest than expected. All this means weaker demand for various goods and services and thus less pressure for price increases.”
- Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
1 May 2026
“If the war lasts longer, the economy could slip into a downturn – especially if monetary policy reacts too restrictively and exacerbates the recession.” - Christine Lagarde (ECB)
30 April 2026
“I think we have determined that stagflation is the right characterization of what happened in the 1970s, but from our perspective, we think that it's better to park it in the 1970s, given the facts that we have at the moment. You know, it's a completely different situation. In the 1970s, you had inflation continuing, continuing, continuing at a sort of sustainable and solid pace. You had very high unemployment. You had a monetary and fiscal framework that had nothing to do with what we have at the moment. So, we don't apply stagflation, that flashy term, to the circumstances that we have because we really think that it's associated with the 1970s situation.”
Fiscal response:
- Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
29 May 2026
“[M]y perception is that government responses have been of quite limited scale – or, to put it another way, not comparable to what we saw in 2021 and 2022.” - Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
14 May 2026
Fiscal policy remains a possible source of additional inflation pressure. - Martin Kocher (Austrian National Bank)
13 May 2026
“There are differences between countries, but at the moment the overall fiscal impulse is still small.”