By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kažimír’s declaration Monday in a blog post that he expects to back another rate hike in September deserves attention, but his record suggests that his misses are more revealing than his hits.
28 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter edged slightly lower this week in its Governing Council and Executive Board measures as policymakers struck a patient tone on further tightening while continuing to point to September as the next natural opportunity for reassessment.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left herself plenty of room to maneuver on Thursday while appearing to offer reassurances about how long she intends to remain at the ECB.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel was strikingly neutral after Thursday’s decision, offering none of the mildly hawkish signaling one might ordinarily expect from him.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday broadly delivered the expected communication mix, acknowledging, as we anticipated earlier in the day, that some governors had “asked themselves whether we should not consider a hike” while resisting every invitation to turn that discussion into guidance for September.
23 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Will European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde say on Thursday that the Governing Council discussed raising rates again at its meeting?
23 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When the European Central Bank’s Governing Council emerged from its June meeting, members’ unspoken “baseline,” we understand, was that there would be no second hike in July but that September would be very live.
21 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá has attracted little attention in the still unofficial race to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde. But Escrivá may be hiding in plain sight at the head of the Banco de España, given his strong claim to serious consideration.
20 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s latest SAFE survey suggests that euro area firms are not further amplifying the energy shock via their own pricing and wage plans, even as they remain skeptical that inflation will return fully to target over the longer term.
20 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s newly explicit openness to leaving Frankfurt early should not be understood exclusively in terms of a potential candidacy in next year’s critical French presidential election.
20 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter edged lower this week in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, with the latter declining to almost the same level as the former, virtually eliminating the gap that had previously separated the two.
17 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy.
17 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel’s newest remarks confirm that a July rate hike is not the European Central Bank’s baseline and underscore the need for the ECB to exercise great caution under the prevailing circumstances.
15 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is fond of assuring markets that they understand the ECB’s reaction function. After the ECB’s June meeting , for example, she said the Governing Council’s job was to “follow carefully the reaction function that you are all familiar with” and to be “as transparent about [it] as possible so that we are predictable.”
14 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) - Econostream's ECB Tone Meter declined markedly this week in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, with the latter remaining slightly more hawkish than the former, as policymakers sounded less likely early in the week to hike again and were then largely silent following the renewed outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The renewed flare-up of violence in the Middle East has made it harder for the European Central Bank to approach the Governing Council’s July 23 monetary policy meeting as a wait-and-see exercise, but it has yet to make a July rate hike the obvious baseline.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has again managed to say very little about her potential French political future, but in a way that only feeds the speculation.
10 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch has occupied an unusually prominent place in the news recently, and not just for his views on monetary policy.
3 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter declined further this week in both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, with the latter remaining more hawkish than the former, as policymakers increasingly signaled that the case for another interest rate hike is receding and a July move appears increasingly unlikely.
3 July 2026