By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Philip Lane’s Ljubljana speech on Wednesday reads like a belated attempt to pull ECB communication back toward its own strategy just as Governing Council members work to downplay the significance of what looks increasingly like another projected undershoot in 2028.
3 December 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB Tone Meter moved slightly hawkish this week, with the Governing Council reading at -0.09, which we classify as broadly neutral but still with a marginal dovish tilt, and the Executive Board at +0.20, which we view as neutral with a marginal hawkish lean.
28 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The ECB will soon unveil its first staff projections for 2028, complete with a revised profile of the inflation impact of ETS 2. On paper, that should be a big moment: an extra year of forecast, a new carbon-price shock and an inflation target that is supposed to be symmetric. In practice, Governing Council members are working to make sure it is not.
26 November 2025
- Our call (part 3): Knot to replace Lagarde; Bénassy-Quéré to be next chief economist
19 November 2025
ECB Insight: The Race for de Guindos’ Seat Begins with Centeno Quietly Making His Availability Known
13 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If it wasn’t evident previously, it is now: Martin Kocher’s arrival at the European Central Bank’s Governing Council marks a clear stylistic and substantive departure from his predecessor, Robert Holzmann.
12 November 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Until recently among the European Central Bank Governing Council’s clearest voices in favor of further rate cuts, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau has lately sounded unmistakably less eager to beat the drums for more easing.
7 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following Thursday’s decision to leave interest rates alone, European Central Bank Governing Council policymakers wasted little time signaling that the December Eurosystem staff projections – the first to include 2028 inflation – should not be over-interpreted.
31 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It was just as well that the European Central Bank on Thursday also decided to move to the next phase of the digital euro project, which to some degree filled the vacuum left by a monetary policy decision notably short on actual news.
30 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s policy meeting looks set to be a deliberate non-event designed to blend seamlessly into a series of non-events: rates on hold, no pre-commitment, and the same disciplined message that has dominated for months. Optionality to be preserved, not exercised.
28 October 2025
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Recent conversations by Econostream with multiple European Central Bank policymakers point to one conclusion: any lingering expectations of a December rate cut would be unrealistic unless the policy environment changed significantly.
22 October 2025
- Our call (part 2): Lane’s successor – Kazāks, Vujčić and the Dombrovskis factor
10 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the ECB’s September Governing Council meeting reads like a textbook case for patience: inflation “close to the 2% medium-term target,” risks “on both sides,” and – as in July – “a high option value to waiting for more information.”
9 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Incoming European Central Bank Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira’s insistence that he is “definitely not a dove” invites a natural question: if not a dove, then what? The answer, at least for now, is that the new Banco de Portugal governor’s self-characterization looks more rhetorical than substantive — a positioning move rather than a signal of hawkish conviction.
9 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s first major appearance in months was ostensibly a defense of the ECB’s balanced approach to policy, but beneath the calm language of symmetry and data dependence ran a clear subtext: disinflation risks still dominate, and the intellectual groundwork for further easing remains in place.
6 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde may have spoken off the cuff when she described Klaas Knot as fully qualified to succeed her, but her words carry political weight that will not go unnoticed in euro area circles: her assessment of the former De Nederlandsche Bank chief as someone who “could, absolutely” lead the ECB is as close as an incumbent can come to signaling approval in such a politically charged context.
6 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech in Helsinki on Tuesday confirmed the steady honing of her message over recent weeks: policy is firmly on hold, inflation risks are bounded, and the shocks of trade conflict are proving less destabilizing than once feared.
1 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone's latest message is as striking for its tone as for its content. The Italian policymaker, generally seen as part of the Governing Council’s more dovish contingent, struck an unexpectedly upbeat note on growth and offered no hint of encouragement to those hoping for easier policy.
24 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The deluge of recent European Central Bank communication suggests a Governing Council still largely comfortable with its current stance, even as a few members leave the door ajar for more easing. The pattern emerging from speeches and interviews over the past days is less about fundamentally new perspectives than about positioning, nuance and subtle divergences on risks.
23 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) — European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ comments today shouldn’t be mistaken for a rubber stamp on an extended pause. While he dutifully called current rates “appropriate”, that is pure boilerplate after a decision taken less than a week ago. The substance of his remarks was noticeably more dovish.
17 September 2025