By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A rapid euro climb toward the psychologically loaded $1.20 area has reopened a recurring question: when does an exchange rate move become a monetary policy problem?
29 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić’s elevation to the ECB vice presidency has turned Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn’s next opportunity into a conditional one. The calendar leaves room for at most one more smaller-country appointment before late 2028, and whether that path exists depends critically on what Spain manages to claim in the 2027 succession contest.
26 January 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB's tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovishly for the Governing Council as a whole and the Executive Board alone, settling at +0.04 and +0.12 respectively, though both remain in positive – i.e. hawkish – territory.
23 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The dust having settled following European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić’s elevation to succeed Luis de Guindos as ECB vice president on Monday, the choice looks like a classic convergence outcome: a candidate who was not the clearest front-runner, but proved acceptable to the widest range of capitals in a crowded field.
23 January 2026
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher on Thursday said that current interest rates were appropriate but that the ECB had to be ready to react to developments that could argue for an adjustment in either direction.
22 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Euro area finance ministers’ nomination on Monday of Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujčić to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos is a mainstream pick from a largely mainstream field.
20 January 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev joined the European Central Bank’s Governing Council less than three weeks ago amid close interest in his views. After speaking with him ourselves, his policy instincts remain hard to trace.
19 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s La Stampa interview published today was disciplined in form—baseline first, uncertainty explicit, reaction function articulated—but not perfectly neutral in substance. Using our ECB Tone Meter , we scored the intervention at -0.25: dovish, though only marginally.
16 January 2026
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The Baltic states have moved to reclaim the initiative in the contest to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, issuing a joint statement that frames the appointment as a question of representation and seeks to keep a “Baltic turn” argument alive.
16 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Wednesday gave markets a line they will not forget quickly: “The current level of the interest rate delivers the baseline for the next several years.”
16 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs committee has moved unusually early in the contest to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, with its coordinators backing Latvia’s Mārtiņš Kazāks and Portugal’s Mário Centeno as the preferred candidates after informal exchanges of views with all six contenders.
15 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Estonian Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi’s endorsement of Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller as having a “very good track record” is less an attempt to declare victory than a window into a contest that remains unusually fluid.
14 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With six candidacies to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos now formally established following the close of nominations last Friday, the appointment process is moving into its next phase.
14 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Over two days, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council offered a small but telling communications split: two senior national central bank governors drifted into calendar-based reassurance about rate hikes, while their colleague, Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher, reaffirmed the ECB’s doctrine of optionality.
13 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Portugal is expected to formally nominate former ECB Governing Council member and ex-Eurogroup President Mário Centeno to succeed ECB President Luis de Guindos on Friday, after Centeno announced his candidacy late Thursday, sharpening a contest that has become unusually crowded ahead of the Eurogroup’s January 9 nomination deadline.
9 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The Lithuanian Finance Ministry on Tuesday confirmed that it was putting forward three-time finance minister Rimantas Šadžius as a candidate to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, corroborating Econostream’s reporting from 18 December.
6 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank emphasizes that the monthly rotation of Governing Council voting rights does not silence anyone: all governors still attend and have the right to speak, and most decisions are reached by consensus. A recent empirical study of the ECB’s rotation model is broadly consistent with that claim, finding only rare cases in which rotation appears likely to have determined outcomes.
6 January 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the European Central Bank’s Governing Council wonders how long its current “good place” will last and to what policy move it will ultimately give way, it also faces another year of above-average turnover.
29 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s December press conference did not merely reaffirm that the Governing Council is in a “good place.” It subtly revealed that the phrase is starting to run out of road.
22 December 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Sunday that the ECB was at a “precarious equilibrium” with inflation and interest rates at 2%.
22 December 2025