By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A possible early departure of European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel for the International Monetary Fund looks entirely plausible despite her previous declaration that she intended to serve out her term. It would constitute a significant loss for the hawkish wing of the Governing Council.
4 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel appears understandably intent on broadening his appeal in France as the contest to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde heats up, with a strategic interview in French daily Le Monde providing the latest evidence.
2 September 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Choosing Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos as the next European Central Bank president could carry an underappreciated cost for Europe: BIS leadership could pass to another region.
1 September 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter rose significantly this week across both its Governing Council and Executive Board measures, as the few policymakers who spoke in recent days all signaled that a rate hike could be on the table.
28 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's decision to appear two weeks from tomorrow at the political rentrée of French centrist Hervé Morin looks more like an intervention in France's emerging 2027 presidential debate than an engagement focused on monetary policy.
28 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the European Central Bank works through the unfinished elements of its new operational framework, one of the longer-term questions is how structural reserve provision should eventually be divided between refinancing operations and securities holdings.
28 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As technical work on the European Central Bank's operational framework review gets under way, one of the main pieces of unfinished business is how and when the ECB should begin meeting part of the banking system's recurring liquidity needs through new structural refinancing operations.
27 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank's review of its operational framework is moving into a more active phase, with technical work now under way and the issue set to return to the Governing Council in the months ahead.
26 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three months after we argued that the remarkable stability of the field of plausible candidates to succeed European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was increasingly good news for former De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot, strikingly little has changed in this respect.
25 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's reported declaration that she is "ready to serve" as the next president of the World Economic Forum adds weight to the long-running case for her leaving Frankfurt before her term expires at the end of October 2027.
24 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A further 25bp European Central Bank interest rate hike in September looks increasingly likely, with unexpectedly resilient economic activity leaving little obvious reason for policymakers to confound longstanding market expectations – embedded as well in the baseline outlook – of further tightening.
24 August 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kažimír’s declaration Monday in a blog post that he expects to back another rate hike in September deserves attention, but his record suggests that his misses are more revealing than his hits.
28 July 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter edged slightly lower this week in its Governing Council and Executive Board measures as policymakers struck a patient tone on further tightening while continuing to point to September as the next natural opportunity for reassessment.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left herself plenty of room to maneuver on Thursday while appearing to offer reassurances about how long she intends to remain at the ECB.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel was strikingly neutral after Thursday’s decision, offering none of the mildly hawkish signaling one might ordinarily expect from him.
24 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday broadly delivered the expected communication mix, acknowledging, as we anticipated earlier in the day, that some governors had “asked themselves whether we should not consider a hike” while resisting every invitation to turn that discussion into guidance for September.
23 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Will European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde say on Thursday that the Governing Council discussed raising rates again at its meeting?
23 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When the European Central Bank’s Governing Council emerged from its June meeting, members’ unspoken “baseline,” we understand, was that there would be no second hike in July but that September would be very live.
21 July 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá has attracted little attention in the still unofficial race to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde. But Escrivá may be hiding in plain sight at the head of the Banco de España, given his strong claim to serious consideration.
20 July 2026