By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Writing here on June 3, we expressed reluctance – hardly novel - to accept European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ contention that 2% would mark the terminal rate of the ECB’s easing cycle. With good reason: Stournaras himself now appears reluctant to accept it.
18 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The division within the European Central Bank Governing Council was apparent last week, but Vice President Luis de Guindos’ comments published Monday made it even clearer - not just where the lines lie, but also where common ground has emerged.
16 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As it is now established that Olaf Sleijpen will succeed Klaas Knot as President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), we have taken a closer look at Sleijpen’s record and concluded that a major shift in Dutch thinking on monetary policy at the European Central Bank is unlikely.
13 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was only one attempt during Thursday’s press conference to get European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to confirm explicitly that euro area monetary policy had reached neutral territory. She demurred, but it didn’t matter, as she managed all the same to convey the idea that the ECB was done or close to it.
5 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There’s no point denying the obvious. Even ultra-dovish Banca d’Italia Governor Fabio Panetta acknowledged on Friday that the European Central Bank’s room for further policy easing is narrowing.
3 June 2025
By Marta Vilar – ROME (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta on Friday offered a blunt indication that the ECB is probably nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle, accompanied by indications of openness to doing more.
30 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When a European Central Bank Governing Council intervention is of particular interest, our own reporting is often followed by a curious look at what others make of what the policymaker said. Such was the case with Chief Economist Philip Lane’s interview Tuesday evening in German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
28 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on the EU of 50% from 1 June. On Sunday, he took it back, albeit merely in favour of maintaining the previous ongoing 90-day pause giving both sides time to hammer out a trade deal.
26 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Granted, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel would object to our title above, her speech early Saturday (Frankfurt time) during a conference at Stanford University having clearly been meant as a pushback against calls to take euro area interest rates ever lower.
12 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was never much question about where European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn came down on the question of whether or not to cut interest rates again in June, but the Bank of Finland governor laid any lingering doubts to rest on Friday.
9 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ comments on Monday appear to be a cautious retreat from his earlier insistence on the likelihood of a terminal rate of 2%.
6 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Saturday seemed to encourage expectations of further easing and in any case did not in the least push back against these.
5 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Somewhat unusually, no one tried to draw out European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at Thursday’s press conference on the Governing Council’s sentiment toward a potential cut at the next monetary policy meeting on June 5.
17 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – While US President Donald Trump may have declared a 90-day pause before (reduced) tariffs take effect, and dealmaking to further cushion the blow to Europe is likely, the European Central Bank is not about to dismiss the entire tariff episode as a tempest in a teapot.
15 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In the immediate aftermath of the imposition by the US of sweeping tariffs on the rest of the world, we can’t help but notice that nobody from the European Central Bank’s Governing Council has actually suggested that this is a new reason to put the monetary policy easing process on pause this month.
4 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our last member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council was only Tuesday, but the announcement on Wednesday evening of US tariffs has led to a couple of changes ostensibly favouring a pause.
3 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Looking at European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments alongside those made by him previously, it is hard to escape the conclusion that he has grown suddenly less supportive of further monetary policy easing in the near term.
3 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If it ever made sense for European Central Bank Governing Council members to avoid going out on any limbs, it does now, with mere hours to go until US President Donald Trump vents and in doing so initiates a key round of the burgeoning trade conflict.
2 April 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Fabio Panetta, one of the most dovish members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, sounded unexpectedly hawkish on Monday, but we hesitate to infer from this a conviction that the ECB should put its policy easing on pause the week after next.
1 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our last member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council eight days ago included three changes with respect to the tally of two weeks previously, all three tending to support the idea of an April cut.
1 April 2025