By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Recent conversations by Econostream with multiple European Central Bank policymakers point to one conclusion: any lingering expectations of a December rate cut would be unrealistic unless the policy environment changed significantly.
22 October 2025
- Our call (part 2): Lane’s successor – Kazāks, Vujčić and the Dombrovskis factor
10 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the ECB’s September Governing Council meeting reads like a textbook case for patience: inflation “close to the 2% medium-term target,” risks “on both sides,” and – as in July – “a high option value to waiting for more information.”
9 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Incoming European Central Bank Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira’s insistence that he is “definitely not a dove” invites a natural question: if not a dove, then what? The answer, at least for now, is that the new Banco de Portugal governor’s self-characterization looks more rhetorical than substantive — a positioning move rather than a signal of hawkish conviction.
9 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s first major appearance in months was ostensibly a defense of the ECB’s balanced approach to policy, but beneath the calm language of symmetry and data dependence ran a clear subtext: disinflation risks still dominate, and the intellectual groundwork for further easing remains in place.
6 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde may have spoken off the cuff when she described Klaas Knot as fully qualified to succeed her, but her words carry political weight that will not go unnoticed in euro area circles: her assessment of the former De Nederlandsche Bank chief as someone who “could, absolutely” lead the ECB is as close as an incumbent can come to signaling approval in such a politically charged context.
6 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech in Helsinki on Tuesday confirmed the steady honing of her message over recent weeks: policy is firmly on hold, inflation risks are bounded, and the shocks of trade conflict are proving less destabilizing than once feared.
1 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone's latest message is as striking for its tone as for its content. The Italian policymaker, generally seen as part of the Governing Council’s more dovish contingent, struck an unexpectedly upbeat note on growth and offered no hint of encouragement to those hoping for easier policy.
24 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The deluge of recent European Central Bank communication suggests a Governing Council still largely comfortable with its current stance, even as a few members leave the door ajar for more easing. The pattern emerging from speeches and interviews over the past days is less about fundamentally new perspectives than about positioning, nuance and subtle divergences on risks.
23 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) — European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ comments today shouldn’t be mistaken for a rubber stamp on an extended pause. While he dutifully called current rates “appropriate”, that is pure boilerplate after a decision taken less than a week ago. The substance of his remarks was noticeably more dovish.
17 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It’s still possible to believe the European Central Bank’s Governing Council could cut rates again this year — if one expects the environment to change enough to make next year’s undershooting of the target look less transitory.
16 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Prominent doves on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council were at pains on Friday to breathe new life into the now somewhat moribund idea that the ECB might cut interest rates again soon.
12 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday set the stage for ECB interest rates to persist at 2% into 2026 amid a somewhat brighter economic outlook, while nonetheless refusing to foreclose on any option.
11 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Thursday’s European Central Bank interest rate decision holds very little suspense, not one Governing Council member having openly questioned the wait-and-see mode for the moment. The real question is whether December brings another cut.
9 September 2025
- Our call (part 1): Rehn to succeed de Guindos as VP, but gender politics loom
8 September 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In contrast to comments of European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks published earlier Friday, subsequent interventions today by his French and Finnish counterparts – François Villeroy de Galhau and Olli Rehn – added little new insight into the current ECB policy outlook.
25 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In our 6 June interview , European Central Bank Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks appeared to envisage not just one, but at least two more rate cuts. His comments today make clear that this is no longer the case, and strongly support scepticism that there will be further easing seven weeks from now.
25 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone on Thursday, pointing to better-than-expected economic data, dismissing fears of undershooting, and repeatedly declining to encourage expectations of further easing.
24 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our starting point in considering where the European Central Bank now stands is that we assign only limited weight to US President Donald Trump’s 12 July announcement.
22 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With the question of Mário Centeno’s future at Banco de Portugal seemingly close to resolution, a new possibility looms: could he be headed for an even higher post on the ECB’s Executive Board?
21 July 2025