By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Primož Dolenc said Tuesday that a more benign energy price environment could ease pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates again and allow policymakers to wait until September before deciding on the appropriate policy stance.
"The latest developments in the energy market are more benign than it was expected just a few weeks ago", Dolenc, who heads Banka Slovenije, told Reuters on the margins of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.
"If this environment persists and energy prices stay around this level, then the pressure on us to act will ease and we could afford to wait until fresh projections in September to decide on the appropriate policy calibration", he said.
Still, Dolenc stopped short of ruling anything out for July, stressing that the ECB would reassess the situation in light of incoming data and could still face a different backdrop by then.
A scenario in which no further tightening was needed could become possible if energy prices declined further, second-round effects failed to materialize and some of the indirect effects of the recent energy shock gradually faded, he said.
"However, this is not my baseline scenario", Dolenc said. "The conflict has triggered an energy shock that remains unresolved, and therefore further price volatility should be expected."
