By Laura Contemori – ROME (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Wednesday that the Middle East energy shock posed upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, warning that it could raise market volatility and make debt servicing more difficult.
27 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Wednesday that the ECB should take the energy shock into account when it makes a decision in its June meeting.
27 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen said Tuesday that the ECB was ready to respond if the Middle East energy shock pushed inflation away from its 2% target.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel may have made the strongest official case yet for a June rate hike, but Chief Economist Philip Lane has now made clear that one move would not imply another.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane said Tuesday that a June interest rate increase, if decided, would not necessarily imply the start of a full tightening cycle.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s Reuters interview today confirms almost point for point the argument we made here yesterday : a June rate hike has become very hard to avoid, but it is premature to infer a sequence of moves.
26 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said Tuesday that the ECB would probably need to raise interest rates in June, arguing that the Middle East energy shock was now too large and persistent to be looked through.
26 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that there were no signs of second-round effects yet, but the ECB would remain very watchful and act without delay if needed.
25 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Monday that a significant but temporary overshoot of the ECB’s inflation target would warrant a cautious move toward tighter monetary policy, while warning that the Middle East conflict had intensified stagflation risks.
25 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A mere eleven days ago, a well-known news agency saw a June hike by the European Central Bank as becoming less likely. The opposite is true, and the only interesting case anymore with respect to June 11 is one in which the Iran conflict ends soon, the resolution looks durable and forward energy prices fall far enough, fast enough, to influence the new macroeconomic projections.
25 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Conflicting Spanish media reports over whether Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government is prepared to back former European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos for the ECB presidency have turned the succession issue into an open domestic debate while highlighting what we previously noted: clear evidence of official Spanish support remains scarce.
25 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Sunday that the ECB would have to focus its June discussion on policy action if the economic situation failed to improve.
24 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Sunday the ECB’s June macroeconomic forecasts would likely show a different inflation outlook than the March exercise.
24 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Saturday that it would “be problematic” for the ECB not to raise rates if the current situation in the Middle East persists.
23 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić said Friday that his new role as European Central Bank vice president would involve substantial work on financial stability across the Eurozone.
22 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller on Friday suggested that there were strong arguments in favor of an interest rate hike in June.
22 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter moved in opposite directions across its two indices this week, with the Governing Council becoming slightly more hawkish while the Executive Board pared back some of its hawkishness.
22 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Alexander Demarco said on Friday that the ECB could potentially have to hike in June, but that there was no current need to deliver many follow-up steps.
22 May 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that she would give little indication of what the ECB will decide at its June 11 meeting, while noting that even if the Middle East war were resolved now, its effects would still be felt with a lag.
22 May 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane’s Singapore speech this morning was not much in the way of a June 11 signal, but its limited content touching on the Governing Council’s next decision deserves attention precisely for that reason.
22 May 2026