Central Bank

Exclusive: ECB Insider: When You Develop an Anti-Fragmentation Tool, It Means You’re Afraid

- ECB insider: Would be good to have an anti-fragmentation tool, but there are also risks to this

ECB Insight: Schnabel Sounds Tough on Fragmentation, But Words May Not Be Enough

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – As determined as European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel is to prevent fragmentation from derailing the ECB’s incipient policy normalisation, it is considerably more questionable whether her verbal intervention on Tuesday evening will achieve the desired effect on any sustained basis.

ECB’s Schnabel: Our Commitment to the Euro is our Anti-Fragmentation Tool and Has No Limits

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s unlimited commitment to the euro implies that fragmentation will not be allowed to hamper monetary policy transmission, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said Tuesday.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

Exclusive: QT Not a ‘Current Issue’ as ECB Starts Hiking, But Need to Prepare Already Talked About

- ECB insider: ‘There are views that we need to start more general discussions’ about QT

Exclusive: ECB Governing Council Discussed Neither the Neutral Rate nor the Terminal Rate

- ECB insider: ‘One day we will approach’ topic of neutral rate, but now dealing with hiking

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking

ECB Insight: Exchange Rate Played No Role Thursday, Econostream Understands

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Absent from both European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s monetary policy statement and the entire subsequent press conference on Thursday was any mention of exchange rate developments.

Exclusive: ECB Very Likely to Hike by 25bp in July, But More Not Absolutely Impossible

- ECB insider: ‘Very high probability it’s going to be 25 basis points’ in July

ECB Insight: Recent Convergence of Council Views Seen Continuing to Set the Tone

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Speaking less than two weeks ago to Econostream, a European Central Bank insider jokingly commented that ‘it seems that we don’t even meet in June. It seems that everything is decided already.’

ECB Insight: Insiders Confident of Council’s Ability to Act Despite North-South Divide

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps as part of the recent convergence of views among Europe’s monetary policymakers in the face of worryingly high inflation, European Central Bank insiders seem confident that ECB policy won't be hindered by the way philosophies across the Governing Council correlate to the indebtedness of individual members’ respective country of origin.

Exclusive: Many ECB Insiders Still Undecided, But Clear Potential for Compromise Involving 50 Bps

- ECB insider: Gradualism is ‘a relative concept’, not an automatic objection to 50 bps

ECB’s Villeroy: Inflation is Too Broad, Requiring a Normalisation of Monetary Policy

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau on Thursday said that high core inflation required that monetary policy be normalised.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

Exclusive: ECB Resigned to Euro Weakness Versus Dollar, say Insiders

- ECB insider: ‘This is a war that is already lost’

ECB Insight: Lane Confirms Key Specifics of Coming Monetary Policy Normalisation Steps

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane in an interview published Monday confirmed the key messages of President Christine Lagarde’s blog a week ago today, presumably putting to rest the scepticism of at least one Governing Council member as to whether the ECB would really deliver the end of net asset purchases in the coming weeks and – probably - a deposit rate of zero percent by the end of the summer.

Exclusive: Permanent Anti-Fragmentation Tool Not Seen as Essential by Most ECB Insiders

- ECB insider: We stand ready to react flexibly to fragmentation; ‘forget about specific tools’

Exclusive: ECB Still Likely Far from Ready to Discuss QT, But Topic Could Come up Sooner Than Expected

- ECB insider: Must see other jurisdictions’ QT experience, so ECB hawks not yet pushing the issue

ECB’ Panetta: Should End Net Purchases and Hike, But Need Gradualism and Anti-Fragmentation Tool

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should end net asset purchases and then gradually get official borrowing costs out of negative territory, ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said Wednesday.

ECB’s de Guindos: Main Threat to EMU Financial Stability from War’s Macroeconomic Impact

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday said that the main threat to euro area financial stability stemmed from the macroeconomic ramifications of Russian military aggression