ECB Insight: Making APP Every Bit as Flexible as PEPP May Be an Unlikely Outcome
- Public and private comments reveal range of hard-to-reconcile views
- Official to Econostream: shifting PEPP flexibility to APP ‘wouldn’t be easy, for sure’
Central Bank
ECB Insight: Hawkish Policy Move Likely to Be Offset by Dovish Rhetoric
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the first time in a long time, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is an occasion on which the hawkish point of view stands a decent chance of prevailing.
7 September 2021
ECB Insight: Updated Staff Projections May Be Next Week’s Major News, Absent Big Decisions
- Public and private comments suggest upside revisions likely, though magnitude unclear
- Official to Econostream: 2023 inflation projection ‘needs to be significantly higher’
ECB Brief: Preponderance of ECB Comments Suggest 4Q PEPP Deceleration Possible
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – This is an overview of policy-relevant comments made in the last two weeks by European Central Bank Governing Council members, in particular such comments as may indicate how the speaker would regard a reduction in 4Q of the volume of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) purchases:
2 September 2021
ECB’s Weidmann: Upside Inflation Risks Now Outweigh Downside Risks
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said Wednesday.
1 September 2021
ECB Insight: VP de Guindos Echoes Others Already Calling for Less ECB Support
- President Lagarde Too Suggests Crisis Phase Ending, So 'No Longer a Question of Massive Support'
1 September 2021
ECB’s Stournaras: High Inflation Temporary; Must Assess With Caution
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Currently high euro area inflation is a temporary phenomenon and the European Central Bank should thus exercise caution, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said Wednesday.
1 September 2021
ECB’s Knot: Will Take Decades in Some Countries to Reduce Debt
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The high debt of some countries will require the effort of decades to be reduced, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said Tuesday.
31 August 2021
ECB Insight: Villeroy Leaves Little Doubt That Major Decisions to Need More Time
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With just days to go until the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will presumably start observing the quiet period ahead of monetary policy meetings, Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has apparently confirmed that observers should not expect much from the September 9 gathering except, as he strongly hinted, a slowdown in the monthly asset purchase pace.
31 August 2021
ECB’s Rehn: Reduction of Monetary Support Needs to Avoid Missteps of the Past
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The weak inflation outlook justifies ongoing accommodative monetary policy, and any reduction of accommodation needs to avoid a repetition of past missteps, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Monday.
30 August 2021
ECB’s Villeroy Sees Progress Towards Inflation Target; Expectations in 5 Years ‘Pretty Close’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Inflation expectations five years from now are ‘pretty close’ to the European Central Bank’s price stability objective, ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said Monday.
30 August 2021
ECB Insight: Villeroy Offers Latest Confirmation That Delta Variant Not the Biggest Deal
- Resilience to variant bolsters perception that emergency phase of pandemic petering out
27 August 2021
Exclusive: Econostream Understands Even October Could Still Be Seen as Premature at ECB
- PEPP end next March no foregone conclusion, but not yet close to needing to decide
- Governing Council could devote several meetings to discussing what to do about asset purchases
- Financing conditions seen to allow potential modest reduction in 4Q PEPP purchase pace
- Delta variant significance downplayed despite additional uncertainty
ECB’s Villeroy: Delta Will Only Have ‘Indirect’ Impact on French Growth
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said Thursday that the Delta variant of the coronavirus would only have an ‘indirect’ effect on French economic growth.
26 August 2021
German Bundesbank: 3Q Activity to Top 2Q, but 2021 Overall May Undershoot June Forecast
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The German economy’s third quarter performance should exceed that of the second quarter, but lower-than-expected growth in the first half may lead to an undershooting of the June full-year 2021 forecast, the German Bundesbank said on Monday in its latest monthly report.
23 August 2021
ECB’s Schnabel: ‘We Continue to Expect to See a Strong Recovery’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank still sees a strong economic recovery, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said Saturday.
21 August 2021
ECB Insight: New Forward Guidance Relies on Elusiveness of Underlying Inflation
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.
20 August 2021
ECB’s Lane: July’s Revision to Forward Guidance on Rates Was ‘Just The First Step’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Last month’s revision by the European Central Bank of its forward guidance with respect to interest rates was only the opening act in the implementation of the ECB’s new strategy, Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday.
19 August 2021
ECB Insight: Opposition to New Forward Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.
19 August 2021
ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Kazāks Ranked a Notch Less Hawkish; Wunsch Unchanged Despite July 22 Opposition
Econostream’s latest ranking of the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council in terms of hawkishness/dovishness reflects only one small change, with another potential change considered but rejected.
17 August 2021