By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on the Middle East conflict and its implications for monetary policy following the Governing Council meeting on 19 March:
2 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus on Thursday cautioned against drawing early conclusions about whether the ECB would need to act at its April meeting in response to the Iran shock.
2 April 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said on Thursday that the ECB’s adverse and severe scenarios linked to the Middle East conflict now appear more likely than when they were originally published.
2 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Former German finance minister Jörg Kukies is joining Morgan Stanley, returning to the banking sector after years in senior public office. He is to start in London in May and move to Frankfurt in November to become Country Head for Germany and Austria as well as CEO and Chairman of the Management Boards of Morgan Stanley Europe SE Group.
1 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Since the European Central Bank’s March 19 meeting, Governing Council members have plainly worked to keep April 30 live. So much is clear. Less clear is whether policymakers are doing much to prepare the ground for such a move.
1 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said on Wednesday that the uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict warranted caution and that the ECB should remain on a meeting-by-meeting footing.
1 April 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Wednesday that if oil prices surged to over USD 150 per barrel, the European economy could enter a recession.
1 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Primož Dolenc on Wednesday said that the ECB’s adverse scenario was more likely than the baseline to become the euro area’s next baseline.
1 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone on Wednesday said the digital euro could help ensure Europe’s “resilience and autonomy in payments” in what he called a “fragmenting world.”
1 April 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said Tuesday that a rate hike was “not guaranteed” after the latest euro-area inflation reading, adding that the figure was “expected” and that policymakers remained focused on the medium-term inflation outlook.
31 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Fabio Panetta, usually one of the European Central Bank Governing Council’s more dovish voices (see our Hawk-Dove ranking ), on Tuesday gave his first comments on the Middle East conflict in terms that were less dovish than those of some peers, even if he still stopped well short of backing hikes.
31 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch on Tuesday warned against broad support measures to shield households from the Iran-driven energy shock, arguing that such steps would amount to “pouring oil on the fire.”
31 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić said on Tuesday that the increase in inflation expectations was unsurprising and a prolonged conflict in Iran would have a greater impact on inflation.
31 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller said Tuesday that an April rate hike could not be ruled out if energy prices stayed elevated for long, warning that the assumptions underpinning Eesti Pank’s latest baseline were already looking too benign.
31 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – François Villeroy de Galhau’s early departure from the presidency of the Banque de France, though mainly a domestic story, is also an early test of how French President Emmanuel Macron wants to allocate national monetary policy talent ahead of the next round of European Central Bank Executive Board openings.
31 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kažimír on Tuesday warned that the longer the war in Iran drags on and the more damage it causes, “the greater the risk of inflation will be,” meaning the ECB would have to respond “sooner and more decisively.”
31 March 2026
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said on Tuesday that policymakers need to closely track inflation expectations and avoid second-round effects on wages, adding that monetary policy should remain “proportionate and aligned” with the ECB’s mandate.
31 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Monday that the ECB would have to respond quickly if the latest energy shock began to generate second-round effects or push inflation expectations off course, even as the euro area entered the episode from a stronger starting position than in 2021-2022.
30 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Monday said that a prolonged war in the Middle East would produce stagflationary effects for the euro area and could alter monetary-policy decisions if the shock risked feeding into broader inflation.
30 March 2026
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said Monday that policymakers were assessing the Middle East energy shock in conditions materially different from those of 2022 and would respond without either hesitation or premature action.
30 March 2026