By David Barwick – MARRAKECH, Morocco (Econostream) – Rising Italian bond yields due to that country’s higher-than-expected projected budget deficit exemplify the circumstances under which it would be inappropriate for the European Central Bank to deploy its transmission protection instrument (TPI), in the view of a Eurosystem insider who spoke to Econostream recently.
13 October 2023
By David Barwick – MARRAKECH, Morocco (Econostream) – The European Central Bank may not need to increase borrowing costs further, even if the very high uncertainty now prevailing makes it impossible to say yet for sure that no more rate hikes will be needed, ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said Wednesday.
11 October 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The October monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council would be a sensible occasion for authorities to start discussing seriously the further reduction of the ECB’s balance sheet, in the view of a Eurosystem insider who spoke to Econostream recently.
26 September 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The likelihood that the European Central Bank will or won’t need to hike again is probably closer to being balanced than markets realise, in the view of a Eurosystem insider who spoke to Econostream recently.
25 September 2023
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) - Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 17 July with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
19 July 2023
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus on Monday said that pending a careful examination of all pertinent factors, the ECB might want to consider the possibility early next year of picking up the pace of quantitative tightening with respect to its asset purchase programme (APP).
19 July 2023
By David Barwick – ATHENS (Econostream) - Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 11 July with Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
13 July 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Monday said that when Greece returns to investment grade, it would likely result in very significant new foreign direct investment or financial investment.
13 July 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Monday said that new data showing economic weakness cast doubt on whether the ECB’s central economic scenario was materialising and underscored the tentative nature of any further monetary tightening.
13 July 2023
- ECB insiders express unwillingness to court financial instability needlessly
- ECB insiders suggest that passive run-off of balance sheet could prove sufficient for now
- ECB insiders indicate readiness to leave PEPP forward guidance in its current form
- ECB insiders focused on interest rates rather than other instruments in toolkit
By Xavier D’Arcy – SINTRA, Portugal (Econostream) - Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 27 June with Mário Centeno, Governor of Banco de Portugal and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Centeno: ‘We better be careful about producing substantial statements about the future’
- Centeno: Announcing decisions ahead of time ‘goes against the strategy’
- Centeno: Governing Council ‘will speak in July’ about what to do
- Centeno: 2024 rate cut ‘compatible with a reduction of inflation to 2% in the medium term’
- Centeno: ECB staff projections ‘may be optimistic in terms of GDP’ and ‘pessimistic on inflation’
- Centeno: ‘How can I be stressed about a projection that says that in 2025 […] inflation is 2.2%?’
- Centeno: Baseline ECB scenario is ‘end to the inflationary process without […] major disruptions’
- Centeno: Pass-through from rate hikes ‘may come abruptly’
- Centeno: Eurozone labour market ‘much more fluid’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 26 June with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
28 June 2023
- Kazāks: PEPP reinvestment important for flexibility reasons
- Kazāks: No need for any changes to the PEPP reinvestment at the moment
- Kazāks: Balance sheet adjustment ‘very much driven by the TLTROs’
- Kazāks: Fiscal policy must become less expansionary, or rates will have to go up even more
- Kazāks: Rates should stay high ‘as long as inflation is not significantly undershooting the target’
- Kazāks: Expectation of rate cut in 1H 2024 ‘inconsistent with the baseline macro scenario’
- Kazāks: ‘We will not be done, in my view, in July, and there will be more rate hikes necessary’
- Kazāks: ‘If necessary, we can take a pause and then return to rate hikes’
- Kazāks: ‘The risks of doing too little are higher than the risks of doing too much’
- Kazāks: Lagarde ‘very skilful in getting almost all of us behind every one of our decisions’
- ECB Insiders: Two of Three Surveyed Inclined to Hike Anew in September
- ECB Insiders Reject Market Expectations of Initial Easing Move in 1H 2024
- ECB Insiders Want to Leave Interest Rates at Terminal Level for Some Time
- ECB Insiders: July Rate Hike More or Less a Given
By Xavier D’Arcy – PARIS (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 03 May with Agence France Trésor Chief Executive Cyril Rousseau:
17 May 2023
- AFT's Rousseau sees ‘slightly higher demand’ for domestic inflation-linked products
- AFT's Rousseau: 10% inflation-linked target ‘not a fixed target but rather a soft one’
- AFT's Rousseau: ‘Don’t think de-anchoring is the main explanation’ for inflation swaps trading high
- AFT's Rousseau: Looks like resumption of money market activities by sovereigns ‘have not destabilised the market’
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 15 May 2023 with Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian National Bank and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
16 May 2023
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is hopefully heading for a terminal rate of somewhat above 4%, even if the smaller moves that are now likelier to characterise monetary tightening could imply hiking interest rates beyond the summer, according to ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann.
16 May 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 3 May with Markus Stix, Managing Director in charge of markets at the Austrian Treasury:
11 May 2023