By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the Econostream interview dated 29 November 2022 with European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno:
30 November 2022
- Centeno: If Council ‘sees the need to take policy rates above neutral levels it will do so temporarily’
- Centeno: ‘Very important to underline that any rate hikes above neutral levels are supposed to be temporary’
- Centeno: Rates now closer to normal, but ‘this is no guarantee that further steps are dispensable’
- Centeno: ‘A decision completely aligned with market expectations is not guaranteed’
- Centeno: ‘Adding more predictability and the rationale to our decisions will be key’
- Centeno: ‘Financing conditions are no longer very accommodative’
- Centeno: ‘Our decisions cannot be compared, in size, with those of the Fed, as conditions differ substantially’
- Centeno: Key principles to reduce APP portfolio should exclude any resurgence of fragmentation
- ECB insider on QT: ‘Even if there’s a discussion, we still have fears’
- ECB insider: ‘It can be very fragile on European bond markets’
- ECB insider: ‘We can’t just sell the bonds; it’s impossible’
- ECB insider: Could test APP roll-off at €20bn/month if markets, general economic situation permit
- ECB insider: ‘When you do QT, it is very different than when you do QE’; no symmetry
- ECB insider: Sizeable camp would like to be cautious, not commit ourselves to many things
- ECB insider: Hawks can accept slower hiking if terminal rate unaffected and progress made on QT
- ECB insider: Many Governing Council members fear hiking substantially just before a recession
- ECB insider: October’s 75bp hike was already ‘not so easy’
- ECB insider: ECB President Lagarde likely ‘senses that there is no clear consensus for 75’
- ECB insider: See risk of much more political opposition to hiking as soon as some countries enter recession
- ECB insider: Hawks will feel they must ask for 75bp hike even if they expect outcome to be 50bp
- Holzmann: ‘If things remain unchanged from now to the decision, then I would go for 75’ bp
- Holzmann: If there were a ‘major reduction’ in HICP this month, ‘I could go along with 50’ bp
- Holzmann: No ‘major recession’ seen for now
- Holzmann: On QT, see ‘‘strong consensus that we should start small to test the markets’
- Holzmann: QT should start with APP, only involve PEPP ‘much later’
- Holzmann: Roll-off of assets acquired under the APP can overlap with rate hikes
- Holzmann: ‘Still very much concerned that a de-anchoring of inflation expectations will take place’
- Holzmann: Recent German wage agreement ‘acceptable’, but may lead companies to increase prices
- Kazāks: ‘Discussion about the size of the step is appropriate and of course there will be one’
- Kazāks: December step size depends on economy and on whether we adjust other instruments
- Kazāks: Adjusting other instruments could improve policy transmission to all segments of economy
- Kazāks: ‘There is no need to take a pause at the turn of the year, we should continue hiking into next year’
- Kazāks: Any recession ‘likely to be relatively shallow and short-lived, and this would not lead to rate cuts’
- Kazāks: Situation ‘becoming more nuanced’, so natural that our discussions reflect greater ‘diversity of views’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is planning a non-monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council in northern Finland in February, Econostream understands.
28 October 2022
Exclusive: ECB Insider: Expect Lane to Propose 75bp Hike at Upcoming Council Meeting
- ECB insider: Need to Adjust Other Instruments; TLTROs Take Precedence over QT
- ECB insider: Recent Developments More in Line with September’s Risk Scenario
Exclusive: ECB Insider: What Everyone Agrees Is That We Need to Take Action
- ECB insider: Could easily picture second-round effects on wages, even if the economy weakens
- ECB insider: We see signs of increased inflation expectations in 2024
- ECB insider: 50bp in September would have undermined our credibility
- ECB insider: All the data show increased inflation all across the board in the coming years
Exclusive: ECB Insider: If Price Stability Requires Restrictive Policy, Then We Must Become Restrictive
- ECB insider: ‘Wrong’ to think we would only enter restrictive territory reluctantly
- ECB insider: Must contain mid-term inflation at 2%, that is ‘the main thing’
Exclusive: ECB Insider: QT is ‘Just the Next Step’; Need to Discuss it and ‘Better Sooner than Later’
- ECB insider: I want to discuss QT as soon as possible
- ECB insider: Discussion of QT within Governing Council ‘could be’ in October
Exclusive: ECB Insider: Lagarde Did Not Push for 50bp
9 September 2022
Exclusive: ECB Insider: 50bp Rate Hike Likelier in October than Another 75bp
- ECB insider: Would need very strong case to justify another 75bp
- ECB insider: 75bp not the new benchmark rate hike size
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The next set of European Central Bank staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, due to be unveiled on Thursday, will see medium-term inflation little changed, while forecasts for 2023 will include substantial revisions to both inflation (upwards) and growth (downwards), an ECB insider told Econostream.
1 September 2022
Exclusive: ECB’s Stournaras: Misguided to Hike Rapidly at the Risk of Needing to Backtrack Soon
- Stournaras: ‘Should err on the side of caution rather than on the side of speed’
- Stournaras: Unwarranted wage growth would justify aggressive hiking, but wage growth ‘okay’
- Stournaras: Would like monetary policy to normalise without destabilising output
- Stournaras: ‘Don’t think we’re anywhere close to actual action’ with respect to QT
- Stournaras: QT now ‘could make the situation much more difficult for the real economy’
- Stournaras: TLTRO redemptions to bring ‘a lot of shrinking’ to ECB balance sheet
- ECB insider: We committed ourselves strongly to 25 basis points in July already
- ECB insider: Still, if case is made that something changed significantly, then we could do more
- ECB insider: ‘Hard to imagine a substantial improvement in the inflation outlook’
- ECB insider: ‘I see only upside risks, not downside risks’
- ECB insider: ‘Might be a need for stronger action from the central bank’
- ECB insider: Could be dangerous to do less than what our HICP projections assume
- ECB insider: Stagflation ‘would still require raising interest rates anyway’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on June 28 with Pablo de Ramón-Laca Clausen, General Director of the Tesoro and Financial Policy, Spain’s sovereign debt issuer:
1 July 2022
- Spain DMO head: Tax revenues increasing very significantly, so funding needs declining
- Spain DMO head: Expect our greenium to settle at around three to four basis points
- Spain DMO head: Debt sustainability not currently a problem in any Eurozone country
- Spain DMO head: Spreads ‘have to be justified by fundamentals’
- Spain DMO head: Anti-fragmentation tool will help ECB tighten policy faster, more credibly