Exclusive: QT Not a ‘Current Issue’ as ECB Starts Hiking, But Need to Prepare Already Talked About
- ECB insider: ‘There are views that we need to start more general discussions’ about QT
13 June 2022
Central Bank Exclusives
Exclusive: ECB Governing Council Discussed Neither the Neutral Rate nor the Terminal Rate
- ECB insider: ‘One day we will approach’ topic of neutral rate, but now dealing with hiking
13 June 2022
Exclusive: ECB Very Likely to Hike by 25bp in July, But More Not Absolutely Impossible
- ECB insider: ‘Very high probability it’s going to be 25 basis points’ in July
10 June 2022
Exclusive: Many ECB Insiders Still Undecided, But Clear Potential for Compromise Involving 50 Bps
- ECB insider: Gradualism is ‘a relative concept’, not an automatic objection to 50 bps
6 June 2022
Exclusive: ECB Resigned to Euro Weakness Versus Dollar, say Insiders
- ECB insider: ‘This is a war that is already lost’
30 May 2022
Exclusive: Permanent Anti-Fragmentation Tool Not Seen as Essential by Most ECB Insiders
- ECB insider: We stand ready to react flexibly to fragmentation; ‘forget about specific tools’
27 May 2022
Exclusive: ECB Still Likely Far from Ready to Discuss QT, But Topic Could Come up Sooner Than Expected
- ECB insider: Must see other jurisdictions’ QT experience, so ECB hawks not yet pushing the issue
26 May 2022
Exclusive: Symmetrical Distribution of Key ECB Rates Optimal, But No Urgency Seen
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Theory prescribes no precise corridor width between the key interest rates of the European Central Bank, in the view of an ECB insider who felt that a desire to calibrate that spread was less likely to drive the magnitude of any rate moves in the earlier phase of policy normalisation.
20 May 2022
ECB Brief: Holzmann Says July Governing Council Meeting Will Be ‘Most Interesting and Difficult’
- Holzmann: One purchase programme still there, scheduled to end in July
29 April 2022
Exclusive: More Pronounced Euro Weakness a Headache for ECB, Econostream Understands
- ECB insider: Higher depreciation of euro can affect HICP projection at end of horizon
28 April 2022
Exclusive: 50-bp Rate Hike Not ECB Baseline for Now, But Council Will Have to Discuss
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the debate about rates lift-off by the European Central Bank enters a phase of greater urgency, the date of a first hike is not the only issue about which ECB Governing Council members will have to come to consensus.
21 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB Anti-Spreads Programme to Face Bumpy Path, Econostream Understands
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is likely to be reticent on Thursday about the programme the Eurotower is working on to keep sovereign spreads in check, the facility may face a rocky road when it comes to internal approval, Econostream understands.
13 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB’s Net Asset Purchases Most Likely to End in July, Official Says
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Though not yet a foregone conclusion, net asset purchases under the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programme (APP) are probably on track to come to an end in the first month of 3Q, Econostream understands.
7 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The ‘gradualism’ that the European Central Bank has been tirelessly emphasising of late would characterise its approach to monetary policy will find itself cast overboard if incoming data so dictate, Econostream understands.
4 April 2022
ECB Insight: Holzmann: Severe Scenario May Be Baseline Now; Could See HICP of 10% or Higher
By David Barwick – BOLOGNA, Italy (Econostream) – The official baseline macroeconomic scenario of the European Central Bank is no longer valid and indeed the current outlook is more akin to the severe alternative scenario issued with the updated staff projections last month, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said late Thursday.
1 April 2022
Exclusive: ECB officials saw March HICP forecast as too optimistic, Econostream understands
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The latest baseline scenario of the European Central Bank, updated at the Governing Council monetary policy meeting last month, was never really valid, and policymakers increasingly see the euro area economy as being in one of the less optimistic scenarios the ECB presented at the time, Econostream understands.
1 April 2022
ECB Insight: When Visco Says ECB Not Behind the Curve, Alarm Bells Should Ring
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco on Thursday said that the ECB was not behind the curve. Coming from him, the ECB might want to reconsider whether it is at heightened risk of this happening.
18 March 2022
ECB Insight: Subtle Signs of Inflation Pessimism from ECB President Lagarde
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A close look at European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments on Thursday suggests, albeit subtly, somewhat more pessimism about inflation than just a week previously.
17 March 2022
ECB Insight: For Knot, War no Inflation Game-Changer, But One More Reason to Worry
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no reason to think medium-term inflation prospects in the euro area have become less worrisome, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot implicitly suggested on Thursday.
17 March 2022
ECB Insight: Ukrainian Refugees’ Job Market Impact Seen as Limited; Consumption Effect Bigger
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Some 2.5 million Ukrainian refugees have entered the EU in the last few weeks as a result of Russian military aggression, but this is so far seen by the ECB as being of limited relevance for labour market developments, Econostream understands.
15 March 2022