- 2023 HICP forecast likely below 2%, but realised outcome could easily be at 2%
- Must be patient, but can’t exclude that inflationary forces are quite strong and at some point require reaction
- Should recognise that our models risk underpredicting inflationary pressures
- ECB faced with ‘now-or-never’ moment; ‘this is a huge opportunity to re-anchor to 2%’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Monday appeared to be claiming that shortages affecting economic activity were in effect hampering the euro area’s exit from the crisis.
16 November 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A growing market perception that the European Central Bank is likely to continue offering targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) on somewhat less advantageous terms in a post-pandemic world stands a decent chance of becoming reality, Econostream believes.
15 November 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s rejection on Monday of the idea that she had not countered market rate expectations with much strength neatly underscored the true motive for what was indeed the weakness of that pushback.
15 November 2021
- Should Have Been ‘Part of a Large Package’; Doubts Whether PEPP Will Really End in March
- Announcement of PEPP’s End Seen as Undercutting Pushback Against Rate Expectations
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Time flies at the European Central Bank, where President Christine Lagarde on Thursday unexpectedly deemed it the moment to debate, decide and announce the future of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP).
28 October 2021
- Insider: ‘do not see a situation that first we need to stop asset purchases and only later on increase the interest rates’
- Insider: ‘see possibilities of a combined strategy’ where ECB hikes rates but still buys government debt
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Rare is the Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank that is preceded by as thin a trickle of communication from the Executive Board as the gathering this week.
26 October 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, freshly nominated to a second term at the helm of Banque de France, delivered a speech on Tuesday in which he staked out a broad array of bold positions:
13 October 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on October 6 with Maric Post, Director Treasury and Capital Markets at the Belgian Debt Agency:
12 October 2021
- Belgium ‘not pushing to extend’ average maturity of debt portfolio any further
- Belgian debt head Maric Post: ‘we want to stick to a liquid curve up to 50 years’
- Front-loading Belgian debt issuance in 1H is ‘something that suits us well for now’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane’s speech on Monday raises the possibility that the ECB is even less inclined to withdraw support than previously thought.
11 October 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank remains profoundly unsure about where inflation in the euro area is headed, and while Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s speech on Thursday offered an interesting recital of many reasons why, it served to highlight that uncertainty more than to shed any new light.
7 October 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on October 1 with Edward Scicluna, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
6 October 2021
- Avoided tapering because don’t want to commit yet to end PEPP; ‘we’ll do that in December’
- Would view desire to include Greek debt in APP with sympathy, but must examine implications
- ‘All ears and eyes to see whether economic actors are going to contribute to inflation or not’
- ‘Certain countries would mount legal opposition to a flexible APP’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras on Monday conceded the strength of the recovery in the euro area and in particular in his native Greece, all while vehemently urging monetary authorities to discount presently elevated inflation and maintain the current degree of accommodation.
4 October 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s unremarkable contribution on Wednesday to the policy panel of the ECB Forum on Central Banking was probably reflective of the inescapable fact that there remain months to go until the ECB’s next date with destiny, so that for now it is simply waiting and hoping for a bit of clarity to emerge from the fog.
29 September 2021
- Formal commitment by ECB to respect capital key could make markets uneasy
- Possible compromise a declaration of ECB’s determination to ensure policy transmission
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday took a step back from her recently relatively hawkish language on inflation as she delivered a carefully scripted speech devoid of new policy conclusions to open the ECB Forum on Central Banking.
28 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Of the possible takeaways from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s European Parliament Q&A on Monday, a prominent candidate might be that the Eurotower doesn’t put too much stock in its latest inflation projections.
27 September 2021