By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.
19 August 2021
- ECB to set Q4 PEPP pace, but major announcements on future of QE less likely
- Council can start discussions, but these to continue in the autumn
- Major decisions in September would be seen as rushing things unnecessarily
- August holidays leave little time to lay groundwork; uncertainty still elevated
- Neither cliff effects nor new forecasts seen forcing major decisions in September
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Debt Management Office.
9 August 2021
- ‘Have begun to detect some market interest in a curve extension’
- But any curve extension ‘very much incremental only’
- ‘Might well be’ worth issuing new ultra-long-end linker this year, but must listen to market
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) ever really needs to end could theoretically be an open question, based on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments on the subject.
30 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta may have crossed a line on Thursday by appearing to advocate wilful overshooting of the ECB’s inflation target.
29 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 28 with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
29 July 2021
- ‘What we have learned from the past is that we should not make the mistake of premature tightening’
- On inflation, ‘I would be somewhat more optimistic towards the end of the forecast horizon’
- New forward guidance has ‘provided more clarity, but without tying our hands’
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
28 July 2021
- What’s important is ‘Eurosystem is ready and can act forcefully to address fragmentation when it’s needed’
- Will certainly discuss asset purchases in the Council later this year when we debate about the PEPP
- Moderately and transitory ‘not about the number at a given moment; it’s about the intention’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will be a matter more than anything else of taking a first and important stab at the question of how the new strategy is to shape monetary policy. The answer is less likely to please the hawks, but the doves should take care not to overplay their hand.
20 July 2021
By David Barwick – LJUBLJANA (Econostream) – If the going gets tough for the hawks at the European Central Bank Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting next week, their Slovakian and Slovenian colleagues seem unlikely to come to the rescue.
16 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member and Banca d’Italia Governor Ignazio Visco on Thursday shared his interpretation of the outcome of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review, an interpretation naturally favouring monetary accommodation but otherwise thoroughly redolent of his traditional diagnoses and prescriptions.
15 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although both public comments by European Central Bank Governing Council members and the published accounts of their monetary policy meetings had pointed in the last months to a widening rift, ECB President Christine Lagarde has tended to gloss over any discord – until now.
13 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That the outcome of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy strategy review was a boon to the doves on the Governing Council is clear; comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde over the weekend suggest that the doves could be keen to put their advantage to use at the next opportunity.
12 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account released Friday of the June 9-10 monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council showcased opinions that differed more starkly than at any other recent such gathering, setting the stage for a potentially strident reunion at the next such occasion in ten days.
12 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s comments over the weekend lend credence to the expectation that the ECB will not step on the brakes too quickly even when inflation shows clear signs of revival.
12 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The uniformity with which the European Central Bank Executive Board leans dovish makes member Isabel Schnabel a solitary contrasting voice. Indeed, a closer look at her recent comments side-by-side with those of a dovish colleague reveals considerable differences not far beneath a common surface.
7 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s speech over the weekend represents a tentative but important acknowledgment of the potential for euro area inflation to stage the kind of sustainable recovery monetary policymakers had until now seemed to discount.
5 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps the central message of the interview published Friday with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is that in fact there is no new message in need of conveying at the moment, at least not to financial markets, and thus no reason for the ECB to alter its ‘steady hand’ approach.
2 July 2021