By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Judging by the effort European Central Bank Governing Council members have put into hammering home their views since their last gathering, one might think that the meeting this week stood to yield a particularly significant outcome following a heated debate. While the discussion will probably be spirited, expectations of major results are likely to be dashed.
1 February 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting of 15-16 December, released by the ECB on Thursday, suggested that reasonably widely held views of the inflation outlook expressed at the gathering got relatively little airtime at the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde - or since.
20 January 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream’s ranking of Governing Council members in terms of hawkishness/dovishness has been updated today in two respects: a major re-ranking of Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and a minor adjustment to the placement of Banque centrale du Luxembourg Governor Gaston Reinesch.
19 January 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Do central bankers anticipate economic developments well enough to remain perpetually one step ahead of financial markets and shape monetary policy proactively, or does the lack of any special foreknowledge mean that in fact they essentially go with the flow?
18 January 2022
- Denmark Debt Head: Use of Auction Signals That Green Bond Part of Our Regular Issuances
- Denmark Debt Head: Must Also Stay Very Focused on Keeping Main Benchmark Series Liquid
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Lest anyone had doubted, newly minted European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel made clear at his very first opportunity that the German Bundesbank would continue its tradition of standing up for stable prices and against policy activism.
11 January 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For anyone interested in how the energy transition might ultimately play out in terms of inflation, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel provided the clearest theoretical answer to date.
10 January 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on 09 December with Agence France Trésor Chief Executive Cyril Rousseau:
20 December 2021
- AFT’s ‘robust system’ has worked before under volatility and will function again if necessary
- Downward revision of financing programme only if very clear economic improvement early in the year
- ‘Quite excited to take a closer look at’ adding green dot, but decision depends on study outcome
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday managed to deliver a set of decisions that preserved a high degree of optionality and flexibility and showed growing open-mindedness at the ECB about what would follow currently elevated uncertainty.
16 December 2021
- Insider: ‘We are not going to allow inflation in Europe to move beyond our objective, full stop’
- Insider: ‘Considerations about fiscal conditions should play no role at all’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Seven weeks ago, we noted in this space that the Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank that was then two days off had been preceded by an unusually thin trickle of communication, at least from the Executive Board. Now, the opposite is more the case, with seemingly every member of the Council having weighed in, in many cases more than once, about coming decisions or the possibility of deferring these.
14 December 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Tuesday’s Financial Times story suggesting a growing concern among European Central Bank policymakers about being too hasty to extend accommodation is less revelation than reminder.
7 December 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The imminent departure of European Central Bank Governing Council member and arch-hawk Jens Weidmann represents a loss in terms of the quality of Council discussions, some ECB insiders fear, but does not imply a change in outcomes.
6 December 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday indicated that the Governing Council could play it safe at its upcoming policy meeting by avoiding unnecessarily bold decisions, while pressing it to avoid playing it too safe.
3 December 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council to take place starting two weeks from today may have become more interesting yet in light of increasing speculation that a number of its members would prefer to postpone some of the major decisions previously envisioned emerging from the occasion.
1 December 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ interview today with French daily Les Echos seems to indicate that the latest coronavirus variant does not fundamentally change anything as the Governing Council prepares to set the course of monetary policy.
30 November 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The recruitment and supply difficulties affecting French economic growth may already be starting to dissipate somewhat, according to French Treasury Chief Economist Agnès Bénassy-Quéré.
29 November 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The interview that came out late Friday with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde was not devoid of insights beyond the probably futile attempt to bolster her standing among citizens of the euro area’s largest member economy, not too delighted with the ECB to begin with and now also up in arms about rates of inflation last seen almost three decades ago.
29 November 2021