By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank has essentially stumbled headlong into a pitfall of its own making after information regarding the institution’s expectations of future inflation was apparently shared by Chief Economist Philip Lane with private bankers.
17 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde having made clear last Thursday that the Governing Council would defer major decisions until December, the question of which members are formally entitled to vote at that meeting may be of particular interest.
15 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Monday combined strong rhetoric from both sides of the hawk-dove spectrum of the ECB’s Governing Council as she once again, though in more forceful terms, put on notice those anticipating persistently weak inflation.
13 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As suggested in this space some weeks ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday deferred to December major pending decisions of the ECB Governing Council.
9 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) looking likely to decelerate in 4Q before being allowed to expire at the end of 1Q, barring an extension, speculation concerning the pre-existing asset purchase programme (APP) is mounting.
7 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – For the first time in a long time, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is an occasion on which the hawkish point of view stands a decent chance of prevailing.
7 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With the European Central Bank Governing Council potentially to refrain from making big decisions next week despite the quantitative underpinning of new staff macroeconomic forecasts, the updated outlook for growth and inflation may itself be the major news to emerge from the monetary policy meeting.
3 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – This is an overview of policy-relevant comments made in the last two weeks by European Central Bank Governing Council members, in particular such comments as may indicate how the speaker would regard a reduction in 4Q of the volume of pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) purchases:
2 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Taking into account that the number two at the European Central Bank is never likely to express himself in a way that pre-commits his institution too clearly, Vice President Luis de Guindos’ remarks on Wednesday were a strong indication that the ECB would reduce support at next week’s meeting.
1 September 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With just days to go until the members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will presumably start observing the quiet period ahead of monetary policy meetings, Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has apparently confirmed that observers should not expect much from the September 9 gathering except, as he strongly hinted, a slowdown in the monthly asset purchase pace.
31 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau’s comment Thursday downplaying the economic impact of the Delta variant offers the latest confirmation that the variant shouldn't be a major factor at the next monetary policy meeting of the Council.
27 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As Econostream continues to speak to people close to European Central Bank monetary policymaking, the expectation expressed here 10 days ago of a relatively uneventful September 9 Governing Council meeting has only been reinforced, with even the October 28 meeting seen as potentially too soon for big decisions.
26 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.
20 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.
19 August 2021
- ECB to set Q4 PEPP pace, but major announcements on future of QE less likely
16 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Debt Management Office:
9 August 2021
By David Barwick – Frankfurt (Econostream) – The UK Debt Management Office prefers a gradual approach to any potential extension of its issuance curve, according to Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the DMO.
9 August 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) ever really needs to end could theoretically be an open question, based on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments on the subject.
30 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta may have crossed a line on Thursday by appearing to advocate wilful overshooting of the ECB’s inflation target.
29 July 2021
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 28 with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank:
29 July 2021