Insights

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Šimkus Latest Council Member to be Ranked as Less Hawkish Than Before

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ECB Insight: No Switching of Gears Yet as Lagarde Flags July Hike and Leaves September Unclear

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank on Thursday delivered as expected by Econostream and many others, with President Christine Lagarde leaving no doubt that monetary tightening was set to continue beyond the latest 25bp hike.

ECB Insight: Rhetoric Suggests Door Should Stay Open to Uncertain Amount of Further Tightening

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have no difficulty excluding the possibility of the European Central Bank Governing Council reaching any other monetary policy decision this Thursday than the one it has amply flagged of another 25bp rate hike.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Becomes Latest Council Member to Temper Her Hawkish Language

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who had been keeping her policy views relatively under wraps, was bound to air these before the 15 June Governing Council meeting, and did so on Wednesday, just before the start of the quiet period, with comments we see as fitting the general trend toward a more dovish outlook.

ECB Insight: Knot’s Hawkishness Dialled Down Yet Another Notch

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot on Tuesday again sounded markedly less hawkish than in the recent past, reassuring that the worst of inflation had passed, rejoicing at monetary tightening’s initial impact on the real economy, and arguing that financial stability risks warranted proceeding with further rate hikes cautiously.

ECB Insight: Panetta’s Dovishness Sounding Increasingly Normal as Terminal Rate Nears

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Friday weighed in, as he is wont to at carefully chosen intervals, on the state of ECB monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Governing Council Facing Next Round of Musical Chairs as Departures Loom

By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The composition of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set for a change by the end of 2023, with one influential policymaker’s term expiring and question marks over the future of three more members.

ECB Insight: Lane Back at Work Setting the Monetary Policy Record Straight for the Doubters

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday said that Europe was now in part two of the current inflation story and that monetary policy should be forward-looking, maybe.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Council Becoming Less Hawkish

ECB Insight: More Ground to Cover, Says Lagarde, But Don’t Ask How Much

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank delivered more or less as expected on Thursday, opting to slow the pace of its tightening whilst making clear that, given the lack of a clear impact of higher borrowing costs on the real economy, this was not to be understood as the end of the hiking cycle.

ECB Insight: Default Option of 25BP Likely to Prevail as Data Fail to Meet Standard for 50BP

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Directly following the European Central Bank Governing Council’s last monetary policy meeting, we inclined to the opinion that another 50bp hike in May was somewhat likelier than the only other reasonable alternative of 25bp.

ECB Insight: Option of 25BP Hike Leads, but Tally of Council Underscores Risk of Surprise

- Pre-meeting summary below of all ECB Governing Council members' policy views

ECB Insight: Centeno, Dealt a Stronger Hand, Relishes the Chance To Play It

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if he heard opportunity knocking, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno has been doubling down on his expressions of desire to see his peers start applying patience to the setting of monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Governing Council at Last Goes Well and Truly Data-Dependent, Albeit for Lack of Alternatives

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank stuck to its guns on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde’s relatively surefooted handling of the press conference after the Governing Council meeting characterised by a calm insistence on data-dependence and watchfulness in the context of a job likely not yet done.

ECB Insight: Growing Dissension, SVB Fallout Make Retreat to Data-Dependence More Attractive

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In considering what this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council will bring, we start from the observations that a 50bp hike this week across the board is probably a given despite the Silicon Valley Bank insolvency, putting the spotlight on the post-March policy outlook, and that the Council is showing signs of increasing polarisation.

ECB Insight: Comments by Centeno Underscore Obstacles to Large Rate Hikes Post-March

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Past the habitual dovishness, other, at first glance less substantive comments published Monday in an interview with European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno may actually offer the more interesting insight into the challenge the ECB will face in maintaining the current pace of monetary tightening beyond March.

ECB Insight: Post-Finland Comments Cast Doubt on a Slowdown of the Pace of Hiking in May

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Observers of European Central Bank monetary policy would be well advised to pay heed to the comments of Governing Council members since last week’s non-monetary policy meeting, as they leave open policy option doors that under other circumstances might have now been closing.

ECB Insight: Monetary Policy Very Much on the Mind in Northern Finland

- ECB’s Kazāks: Council retreat occasion to align our views, express our worries and perspectives
- ECB’s Kazāks: ‘The meeting in Finland will prepare us for policy decisions going forward’

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Vujčić Ranked as Mildly Hawkish

ECB Insight: de Cos Sets the Stage for Worrying Not Just About Risk of Doing Too Little

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos’ latest remarks are a reminder that the ECB is not going to hike by 50bp forever and that March, whilst probably not the time to decelerate, could be the right moment for authorities to start giving more consideration to the increasing risks of doing too much too fast.