By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It is very clear that the European Central Bank has its work cut out for it in attempting to come up with an anti-fragmentation tool, Econostream can only conclude after having recently heard opinions on the subject from three more ECB insiders who all seemed keen that such an instrument be designed and deployed conservatively.
7 July 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Consistent with her speech the day before, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday took the opportunity of the policy panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 to make clear again that the mantra of gradualism to which she had been so attached until recently is in the process of falling out of favour.
29 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The statement from the European Central Bank after Wednesday’s ad hoc meeting of the Governing Council suggests an enduring reluctance on the part of monetary authorities to tackle the creation of a new anti-fragmentation instrument.
15 June 2022
By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – As determined as European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel is to prevent fragmentation from derailing the ECB’s incipient policy normalisation, it is considerably more questionable whether her verbal intervention on Tuesday evening will achieve the desired effect on any sustained basis.
15 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Absent from both European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s monetary policy statement and the entire subsequent press conference on Thursday was any mention of exchange rate developments.
10 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Speaking less than two weeks ago to Econostream, a European Central Bank insider jokingly commented that ‘it seems that we don’t even meet in June. It seems that everything is decided already.’
7 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps as part of the recent convergence of views among Europe’s monetary policymakers in the face of worryingly high inflation, European Central Bank insiders seem confident that ECB policy won't be hindered by the way philosophies across the Governing Council correlate to the indebtedness of individual members’ respective country of origin.
6 June 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane in an interview published Monday confirmed the key messages of President Christine Lagarde’s blog a week ago today, presumably putting to rest the scepticism of at least one Governing Council member as to whether the ECB would really deliver the end of net asset purchases in the coming weeks and – probably - a deposit rate of zero percent by the end of the summer.
30 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Monday confirmed that the Governing Council would hike rates in July and strongly suggested that a second rate hike would take place in September.
23 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It was only ever a matter of time before someone from the European Central Bank’s Governing Council publicly floated the potential need for the ECB to consider an outsized interest rate step. That Klaas Knot took it upon himself to do so is no shocker.
17 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In the context of the ongoing communications blitz being waged by members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, the convergence of views is hard to overlook and important not to underestimate.
17 May 2022
By David Barwick – LJUBLJANA (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested on Wednesday that the ‘some time after’ of the ECB’s forward guidance needed to be defined with precision, but on balance probably just wanted to emphasise the potential imminence of a rate hike once net asset purchases end.
11 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We wrote yesterday that we consider a June end to the European Central Bank’s net asset purchases probable, without ruling out the beginning of July. In the interim, we have grown more confident that these are in fact the choices, and prefer the former.
9 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Saturday steered clear of offering financial markets much new in the way of guidance about the timing with which monetary accommodation would be withdrawn, but neither was she keen to dampen expectations, and her comments on the economy suggested a degree of confidence.
8 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson on Friday confirmed that a 50-bps rate hike will be on the ECB’s agenda shortly, but gave no indication as to whether he supported a policy move of that size.
8 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – What a change a few weeks can make. On Thursday, European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta made substantive comments about the proper course for monetary policy that to some extent could have been uttered by a relatively hawkish member of the ECB’s Governing Council.
5 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday presented a strong case for taking policy action relatively soon, suggesting in particular that net asset purchases could end in June with a first rate hike the following month.
4 May 2022
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Sunday reinforced the notion that the ECB could hike rates as soon as July, all while somewhat perfunctorily assuring that the precise date was no foregone conclusion.
2 May 2022