Insights

ECB Insight: Lane, in an About-Face, Now Open to 2022 Rate Hike

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Far from talking down the possibility of rates lift-off this year, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Tuesday conceded explicitly that while no given, a first hike in 2022 was at least possible.

ECB Insight: Elderson Suggests Asset Purchases Are an Obstacle to Policy Normalisation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson would avoid staking out controversial positions in his speech Thursday was probably inevitable, but in some subtle respects his messaging appeared consistent with the at least mildly hawkish stance we expected a priori.

ECB Insight: Renewed Dissatisfaction with ECB’s Staff Projections Increasingly Evident

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The sore subject of the trustworthiness of the European Central Bank’s staff macroeconomic forecasts is flaring up again following the publication of projections two weeks ago implying that medium-term euro area HICP would be so obliging as to emerge from the current extreme turbulence at levels conveniently consistent with the ECB’s 2% price stability target.

ECB Insight: Tally of Council Suggests Will to Hike in 2022 So Far Largely Unaffected by War

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on whether or not to start hiking interest rates this year, we re-examine the question. Our finding, summed up: the more things change, the more they stay the same.

ECB Insight: ‘Some Time After’ Without Hidden Meaning, Econostream Understands

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was no secret motive behind the recent change in wording of the European Central Bank’s forward guidance, Econostream understands.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Scicluna No Longer Ranked Among the Doves

ECB Insight: By Formal Count, Council May Seem to Favour 2022 Lift-Off, But Ukraine a Big Unknown

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A week having passed since our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on the question of whether or not to start hiking interest rates this year, we want to take another look at the issue.

ECB Insight: Three Months on, Panetta Sees More Reason Than Ever Not to Tighten Policy

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Three months after his last public comments on monetary policy, European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Monday clung as tenaciously as ever to accommodative monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Waiting to See What Next Week Brings

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday declined to speculate as to the ultimate economic impact on the euro area of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine (transcript of her remarks here ), but noted that there would be opposing effects while also suggesting that price and financial stability would ultimately decide the course of monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Holzmann Unlikely to Have Been Urging a Fundamental Deceleration

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That geopolitical turmoil without precedent in Europe in the last 75 years should lead the European Central Bank to tread with heightened caution is entirely understandable, and it would be more than odd if it didn’t. We think this truism is essentially what Governing Council member Robert Holzmann had in mind on Thursday.

ECB Insight: Knot’s Thinking on Lift-Off Takes a Hawkish Turn

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot’s Sunday interview revealed a clear and hawkish shift in his thinking that apparently took place over a relatively short period of time.