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Exclusive: ECB’s Stournaras: Misguided to Hike Rapidly at the Risk of Needing to Backtrack Soon

Exclusive: ECB’s Stournaras: Misguided to Hike Rapidly at the Risk of Needing to Backtrack Soon
- Stournaras: ‘Should err on the side of caution rather than on the side of speed’
- Stournaras: Unwarranted wage growth would justify aggressive hiking, but wage growth ‘okay’
- Stournaras: Would like monetary policy to normalise without destabilising output
- Stournaras: ‘Don’t think we’re anywhere close to actual action’ with respect to QT
- Stournaras: QT now ‘could make the situation much more difficult for the real economy’
- Stournaras: TLTRO redemptions to bring ‘a lot of shrinking’ to ECB balance sheet

31 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB’s Müller, Wunsch Strongly Support More Rate Hikes; Stournaras Advocates Gradualism

By David Barwick – ALPBACH, Austria (Econostream) – Various members of the European Central Bank Governing Council on Tuesday split along well-established hawk-dove lines with regard to their respective views of the appropriateness of aggressive monetary policy action in the face of gathering economic clouds.

30 August 2022 Central Bank News

They Said It - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members very directly related to monetary policy’s next steps. We only include forward-looking comments made recently enough to be current. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

26 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB Meeting Account Says 50bp Hike Demonstration of Council’s Ability to React to Changed Outlook

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting of 20-21 July, released by the ECB on Thursday, confirmed the substantial support of the Governing Council for a rate hike of 50 basis points as a signal of ability to respond to altered circumstances.

25 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB’s Lagarde: ‘We Will Return to an Inflation Rate Close to 2%, But When?’

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said that inflation would return to 2% but that it was uncertain when and that staff macroeconomic projections by themselves could not be relied on.

25 August 2022 Central Bank News

They Said It - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members very directly related to monetary policy’s next steps. We only include forward-looking comments made recently enough to be current. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

5 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB’s Kazāks: Should and Will Continue to Hike Rates to Keep Inflation from Becoming Entrenched

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank must and will hike interest rates further to keep elevated inflation from becoming entrenched, according to ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks late Wednesday.

4 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: To Normalise Monetary Policy on a Meeting-to-Meeting Basis; Price Pressures Spreading

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank will continue to normalise policy, but will do so on a meeting-to-meeting basis, the ECB said on Thursday, warning again of spreading price pressures.

4 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Consumers’ Perception of Past Inflation, Expectations of Future Inflation Post Rises in June

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey, released Thursday for the first time, showed increases in June both in the perception of past inflation and in expectations of future inflation.

4 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Second-Round Effects Largely Absent Under Euro, But Persistently High Inflation Increases Risk

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although second-round effects in response to more expensive energy have not generally been seen since the common currency’s advent, persistently elevated inflation makes it more likely that these will occur, the European Central Bank said on Wednesday.

3 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Still Uncertain When Firms Will Start Spending Accumulated Savings on Investment

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It remains unknown when euro area companies will begin to devote the net savings accrued during the pandemic to investment, though there are opportunities in need of considerable funding, the European Central Bank said on Wednesday.

3 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Fiscal Measures Due to War to Add 0.4 Point to GDP, 0.1 Point to Inflation over Medium Term

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The positive impact on growth and negative impact on inflation of fiscal measures taken by euro area countries in response to Russia’s war of aggression will be felt primarily in the current year, the European Central Bank said on Monday.

2 August 2022 Central Bank News

Bank of Greece Deputy Governor Papaconstantinou: ECB Would Adjust Normalisation Pace to Economic Slowdown

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Bank of Greece Deputy Governor Christina Papaconstantinou on Monday said that the European Central Bank would need to modify the pace of monetary normalisation if the economy were to slow down significantly.

1 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Current Oil Price Rise Implies 0.8% Loss in Euro Area Medium-Term Potential Output

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The 40% rise in the price of oil incorporated in the latest European Central Bank staff projections implies a medium-term loss in Eurozone potential output of approximately 0.8%, the ECB said on Monday.

1 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB: Pandemic Savings Have Only Limited Ability to Cushion Energy Price Rises for Consumers

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The nature of savings accumulated during the pandemic is such that this money won’t cushion the impact on consumers of recently more expensive energy, the European Central Bank said on Monday.

1 August 2022 Central Bank News

ECB Insight: Single-Minded Focus on Inflation Likely to Come Under Pressure as Growth Slows

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the Eurozone’s economic weakening becomes more apparent, the question of whether or indeed when the ship of monetary policy normalisation might start running out of steam becomes more pressing.

29 July 2022 Central Bank News

They Said It - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members very directly related to monetary policy’s next steps. We only include forward-looking comments made recently enough to be current. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

29 July 2022 Central Bank News

ECB’s de Guindos: Exceptional Policies Should Be Gradually Normalised; Inflation Will Guide Us

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Friday said that pandemic policies should be normalised and that the ECB would strive for price stability on the basis of inflation, notwithstanding slower growth.

29 July 2022 Central Bank News

They Said It - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members very directly related to monetary policy’s next steps. We only include forward-looking comments made recently enough to be current. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

28 July 2022 Central Bank News

ECB’s Visco: Worsening Growth Prospects Won’t Force ECB to Abandon Post-September Tightening

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco on Thursday did not want to commit to a particular magnitude for the expected ECB interest rate hike in September, but suggested that tightening would continue beyond that month despite the brewing economic storm.

28 July 2022 Central Bank News