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ECB Insight: Momentum Behind 2022 Rates Lift-Off Gathers Further

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost two weeks after our last review of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member stands on rates lift-off in the current year, we take another look to see whether our informal impression that support for this has been growing stands up to inspection. It does.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands

Exclusive: ECB Touts ‘Gradualism’ to Keep Markets Calm, But Data Will Set the Pace, Econostream Understands
- Official: Some countries still extremely fragile with respect to financial market conditions
- Official: Gradualism needed to make sure that we don’t see market overreaction coming

ECB’s Vasle: Let’s Get Away from Negative Interest Rates by Year’s End

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Boštjan Vasle on Monday spoke out in favour of eliminating negative official borrowing costs by the end of 2022.

ECB Insight: Holzmann: Severe Scenario May Be Baseline Now; Could See HICP of 10% or Higher

ECB’s Holzmann: Severe Scenario May Be Baseline Now; Could See HICP of 10% or Higher

- Worries inflation of 10% and higher could be coming, with output stagnant or negative

- Suggests that much depends on Chinese willingness to help resolve war
- Initial signs that inflation expectations may be rising

Exclusive: ECB officials saw March HICP forecast as too optimistic, Econostream understands

ECB officials saw March HICP forecast as too optimistic, Econostream understands
- Official: Clear already during the meeting that the baseline scenario is too optimistic
- Official: We’re now in one of the other more negative scenarios, not the baseline

ECB Insight: ECB’s Lane Reinforces Perception of Willingness to Normalise Policy

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – After having conceded explicitly on Tuesday that, while no given, a first rate hike in 2022 was at least possible, European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Thursday appeared to endorse more generally the gradual normalisation of monetary policy.

ECB’s Lane: Can Gradually Take Monetary Policy Towards More Neutral Stance

By David Barwick – PARIS (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s monetary policy can be gradually normalised so as to reach a more neutral policy stance, Executive Board member Philip Lane said Thursday.

ECB’s Lagarde: War Means Higher Inflation, But Also Threatens Growth; ECB to Act as Needed

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday reiterated key points pertaining to monetary policy and the economic outlook.

ECB’s Makhlouf: Concerned About Inflation’s Impact, ECB Will Do Whatever Is Needed

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on Wednesday expressed concern about high rates of inflation and said that the ECB would take all warranted steps in pursuit of price stability.

ECB’s Holzmann: Rate Hikes in September and December Would Be Consistent with Guidance

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Rate hikes by the European Central Bank in September and December of this year would be in line with what the ECB has stated, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said on Wednesday.

ECB Insight: Spain Ups the Ante With Huge Upside March Inflation Surprise

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Under normal circumstances, one month’s HICP even for the entire Eurozone, let alone for any individual economy, would have few implications for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.

ECB Insight: Lane, in an About-Face, Now Open to 2022 Rate Hike

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Far from talking down the possibility of rates lift-off this year, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Tuesday conceded explicitly that while no given, a first hike in 2022 was at least possible.

ECB’s de Cos: More Room to Delay Rates Lift-Off After Net Asset Purchases End

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank has more room to wait after ending net asset purchases before starting to hike interest rates, ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos said Tuesday.

ECB’s Lagarde: So Far, Don’t See Material Risk of Stagflation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Saturday denied any ‘material risk’ that the euro area would enter stagflation due to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.

ECB’s Lagarde: Monetary Policy Will Take its Course and Normalise

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday said that the ECB was keeping all its options open, but that monetary policy normalisation was coming, depending on the data.

BOC’s Kozicki: Pace and Magnitude of Rate Hikes, Start of QT to be Discussed April

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki on Friday said that Canadian monetary authorities would discuss the specifics of rate hikes and of quantitative tightening at their next meeting.

They Said it - Recent Monetary Policy Comments Made by ECB Governing Council Members

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a reasonably complete compendium of the most recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members with respect to monetary policy. Updates are made on a periodic basis.

ECB Insight: Elderson Suggests Asset Purchases Are an Obstacle to Policy Normalisation

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson would avoid staking out controversial positions in his speech Thursday was probably inevitable, but in some subtle respects his messaging appeared consistent with the at least mildly hawkish stance we expected a priori.

ECB Insight: Renewed Dissatisfaction with ECB’s Staff Projections Increasingly Evident

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The sore subject of the trustworthiness of the European Central Bank’s staff macroeconomic forecasts is flaring up again following the publication of projections two weeks ago implying that medium-term euro area HICP would be so obliging as to emerge from the current extreme turbulence at levels conveniently consistent with the ECB’s 2% price stability target.