ECB Insight: Villeroy Offers Latest Confirmation That Delta Variant Not the Biggest Deal
- Resilience to variant bolsters perception that emergency phase of pandemic petering out
27 August 2021
News
Exclusive: Econostream Understands Even October Could Still Be Seen as Premature at ECB
- PEPP end next March no foregone conclusion, but not yet close to needing to decide
- Governing Council could devote several meetings to discussing what to do about asset purchases
- Financing conditions seen to allow potential modest reduction in 4Q PEPP purchase pace
- Delta variant significance downplayed despite additional uncertainty
ECB’s Villeroy: Delta Will Only Have ‘Indirect’ Impact on French Growth
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said Thursday that the Delta variant of the coronavirus would only have an ‘indirect’ effect on French economic growth.
26 August 2021
German Bundesbank: 3Q Activity to Top 2Q, but 2021 Overall May Undershoot June Forecast
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The German economy’s third quarter performance should exceed that of the second quarter, but lower-than-expected growth in the first half may lead to an undershooting of the June full-year 2021 forecast, the German Bundesbank said on Monday in its latest monthly report.
23 August 2021
ECB’s Schnabel: ‘We Continue to Expect to See a Strong Recovery’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank still sees a strong economic recovery, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said Saturday.
21 August 2021
ECB Insight: New Forward Guidance Relies on Elusiveness of Underlying Inflation
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although the European Central Bank’s strategy review may have led to an inflation target that is clearer than its predecessor, it appears to be relying on a lack of clarity about another concept, namely underlying inflation.
20 August 2021
ECB’s Lane: July’s Revision to Forward Guidance on Rates Was ‘Just The First Step’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Last month’s revision by the European Central Bank of its forward guidance with respect to interest rates was only the opening act in the implementation of the ECB’s new strategy, Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday.
19 August 2021
ECB Insight: Opposition to New Forward Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Almost a month after the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect its new strategy framework, the nature of the opposition of a small minority of monetary policymakers remains somewhat unclear, with the majority clearly united behind the idea that guidance must defer to reality over time.
19 August 2021
ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Kazāks Ranked a Notch Less Hawkish; Wunsch Unchanged Despite July 22 Opposition
Econostream’s latest ranking of the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council in terms of hawkishness/dovishness reflects only one small change, with another potential change considered but rejected.
17 August 2021
Exclusive: Econostream Understands September ECB Meeting Outcome Could Be More Wait-And-See
- ECB to set Q4 PEPP pace, but major announcements on future of QE less likely
- Council can start discussions, but these to continue in the autumn
- Major decisions in September would be seen as rushing things unnecessarily
- August holidays leave little time to lay groundwork; uncertainty still elevated
- Neither cliff effects nor new forecasts seen forcing major decisions in September
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with UK DMO CEO Sir Robert Stheeman on 27 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Sir Robert Stheeman, Chief Executive Officer of the UK Debt Management Office.
9 August 2021
EXCLUSIVE: UK DMO’s Stheeman: Prefer a Gradual Approach to Any Curve Extension
- ‘Have begun to detect some market interest in a curve extension’
- But any curve extension ‘very much incremental only’
- ‘Might well be’ worth issuing new ultra-long-end linker this year, but must listen to market
ECB’s Weidmann: HICP to Accelerate Sustainably Next Few Years; Interest Rates to Rise
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Euro area inflation will recover durably in the next few years, leading the European Central Bank to hike interest rates, ECB Governing Council member and German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said Sunday.
8 August 2021
ECB Insight: Must PEPP Ever Really End? De Guindos Might Make One Wonder…
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Whether the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) ever really needs to end could theoretically be an open question, based on ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments on the subject.
30 July 2021
ECB’s de Guindos: PEPP Should End When Emergency Over; Emergency Mainly a ‘Medical Question’
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The end of the European Central Bank’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) could come down to the question above all of when the pandemic is resolved, Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday.
30 July 2021
ECB Insight: Panetta’s Flirt With Deliberate Overshooting May Further Hinder Consensus
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta may have crossed a line on Thursday by appearing to advocate wilful overshooting of the ECB’s inflation target.
29 July 2021
ECB’s Panetta: HICP Has Been Below 2% So Long That We Need HICP Above 2%
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A record of euro area inflation below the European Central Bank’s target implies a need to overshoot that target now, ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said Thursday.
29 July 2021
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with ECB Governing Council member Kazāks on 28 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 28 with Mārtiņš Kazāks, Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
29 July 2021
EXCLUSIVE: ECB’s Kazāks: If Economy Surprises to the Upside, We’ll Move Faster Than Now Foreseen
- ‘What we have learned from the past is that we should not make the mistake of premature tightening’
- On inflation, ‘I would be somewhat more optimistic towards the end of the forecast horizon’
- New forward guidance has ‘provided more clarity, but without tying our hands’
TRANSCRIPT: Interview with ECB Governing Council member Šimkus on 27 July 2021
Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream on July 27 with Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
28 July 2021