By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – At Econostream we’ve been nothing if not consistent for almost seven weeks about playing down expectations that the European Central Bank Governing Council would cut by 50bp in December. Already on 18 October we contended that markets were indulging in wishful thinking.
10 December 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although one large investment bank recently saw fit to change its call for the European Central Bank Governing Council’s 12 December monetary policy meeting from 25bp to 50bp, at Econostream we see little reason to doubt our expectation that the smaller option will prevail next week.
4 December 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It is no surprise that on Thursday, the day French sovereign spreads surpassed Greece’s, European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau publicly reaffirmed his devotion to a more dovish monetary policy stance.
29 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank may be able to cut interest rates further, but only gradually, according to Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch on Wednesday.
28 November 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) - Like a leg straightening at the blow of a reflex hammer, markets reacted to Friday’s euro area PMI data by assuming that the stage was finally set for the European Central Bank to cut by 50bp next month. We think they are – yet again - assuming too much.
25 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta is nothing if not persistent. Dwindling hopes of egging his peers into an outsized rate cut next month seem merely to have motivated him to try another tack to engineer more accommodation.
21 November 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Governing Council’s hitherto ironclad commitment to purely data-dependent communication devoid of forward guidance is showing first cracks.
19 November 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Two weeks after the US presidential election, the uncertainty underlying insiders’ previously hesitant comments about the impact of Donald Trump’s victory on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance remains, but policymakers are becoming increasingly outspoken.
19 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On Friday, the public discussion of European Central Bank monetary policy was augmented by a rare intervention from the newest member of the ECB’s Executive Board. Our reaction: déjà vu.
18 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It will probably be announced today that former European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos is to take over the helm of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) when current BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens steps down.
11 November 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank policymakers are nothing if not apprehensive about the US elections to take place tomorrow, given the potential implications of another Donald Trump presidency.
4 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With 26 members, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is inevitably subject to a fair degree of turnover. This year, three new faces appeared on the Council, as governors of the Bank of Spain, the Central Bank of Cyprus and the Central Bank of Malta were all replaced (the latter - for now – officially on a temporary basis).
1 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – First and foremost, we still stand by the article published here on 18 October, the main point of which was to argue that markets were ‘seeing the European Central Bank Governing Council’s decision on Thursday a tad too strongly through the prism of wishful thinking.’
31 October 2024
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should probably undershoot its 2% price stability target at least initially, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Saturday.
28 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Financial markets, we suspect, are seeing the European Central Bank Governing Council’s decision on Thursday a tad too strongly through the prism of wishful thinking.
18 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The data at the disposal of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council during today’s monetary policy meeting must have been quite unambiguous indeed.
17 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde might be well advised to resist her usual instincts and refrain from seeking unanimous support for the rate cut we expect to emerge from this week’s Governing Council meeting.
15 October 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Faster disinflation and weaker economic growth are not the only arguments wielded by European Central Bank Governing Council members in support of a rate cut this week. Cracks in the area’s labour market are also increasingly cited by authorities wanting to ease monetary policy further.
14 October 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Right off the bat, we would like to note that we stick to the view that the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is more likely than not to cut interest rates by 25bp at its monetary policy meeting next week. Too many Council members have indicated too clearly that they favour this outcome, while too few have expressed opposition or even just uncertainty.
11 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On a day like today, that so very German word Torschlusspanik might come to mind. Literally ‘gate-closing panic’, it refers to the fear of letting an important opportunity slip by at the last minute and is often used in the context of those worried that their marriageability is on the verge of expiration.
9 October 2024