By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday delivered a performance in line with the largest part of Governing Council members’ communication in recent weeks pointing to June as being the likeliest start of monetary policy easing.
7 March 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Aside from a few outliers impatient for looser European Central Bank monetary policy (and a number favouring a particularly leisurely approach), it is apparent at this point that the Governing Council has its sights tentatively set on the June meeting as the most promising candidate for the first rate cut.
6 March 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council with respect to the preference to tackle policy easing more or less slowly reveals that the camp of those continuing to see interest rate cuts as premature dominates, though the opposition has gained ground.
16 February 2024
By David Barwick – SPLIT, Croatia (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday understatedly but resolutely discouraged very short-term rate cut expectations even as he recognised the progress in disinflation so far and voiced the anticipation that this would continue.
14 February 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos’ reluctance to pin a date to the ECB’s first rate cut should not obscure the fact that he is now apparently supportive of discussing the issue rather than continuing to keep it at arm’s length.
12 February 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in her latest comments managed to convey the impression that she did not envision the first ECB rate cut coming too soon whilst skirting the mention of any calendar month or particular timing.
7 February 2024
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream recently with Karol Czarnecki, Director of the Public Debt Department at the Polish Ministry of Finance.:
30 January 2024
By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Polish President Andrzej Duda will probably sign Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s budget, in the view of Karol Czarnecki, Director of the Public Debt Department at the Polish Ministry of Finance.
30 January 2024
By David Barwick – ZAGREB (Econostream) – We interpret the comments made Tuesday by European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić as potentially indicating, on balance, that he is leaning towards a first rate cut in April rather than June.
30 January 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday was more or less exactly as predicted by us in this space on Tuesday: uneventful, devoid of surprises, with the need for policy to stay restrictive reconfirmed and talk of rate cuts dismissed as premature.
25 January 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have a hard time imagining surprises emerging from this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting, the stage having been so well set in the runup to the occasion.
23 January 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It may well be that the European Central Bank will cut rates by the summer. We see this as being only just shy of a given, and that depends very little on the wiggle room in the words ‘by the summer’.
17 January 2024
Heads up to clients - this is a piece that we regularly feature and update on our website, summarising all recent ECB speak. We updated it today. You can view it at this static link. https://www.econostream-media.com/theysaidit.html
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is an overview of recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of 14 December, but earlier comments can still be seen in versions up to that of 08 December.
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde performed much as expected on Thursday at the press conference following the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting, acknowledging progress and not slamming any doors shut as she tempered her previous almost indignant rejection of early rate cuts and focused instead on the need to collect more data.
14 December 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We see the key outcome of this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting as a distinct but carefully measured and limited distancing from the hawkish tone of six weeks previously.
12 December 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – After kicking the QT can down the road at the European Central Bank Governing Council’s meeting in Athens at the end of October, ECB President Christine Lagarde could finally be ready to broach the subject at the next such gathering one week from today.
7 December 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Barring a dramatic event, one should not expect rhetorical about-faces from a central banker with well-known views; European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel came about as close to that on Tuesday as it gets.
6 December 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There is no currently apparent need for the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy in the first half of next year, making discussion of rate cuts premature, but a change in the situation could lead to another outcome, ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said Wednesday.
6 December 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It’s about time – that was our first thought on reading European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest contribution to the public discussion of the monetary policy outlook, in which she confessed to having come around to a less hawkish take on matters.
5 December 2023