By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We wrote in this space on 27 June that it was ‘appropriate to view a September cut — never a certainty — with less confidence than may have seemed justified three weeks ago.’ If at the time we tended to incline toward the view that the September cut could simply be delayed, we must now wonder whether there will be any further easing at all.
11 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we consider it timely to examine some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
7 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Today, we undertake another member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council, this time with respect to the likelihood of support for a rate cut in September.
4 July 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we continue our examination of some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
30 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Perhaps they merely confirm our prior thinking, but we found today’s comments by outgoing ECB Governing Council member and De Nederlandsche Bank Governor Klaas Knot particularly worth highlighting.
27 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In a series that kicked off on Monday with European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn , we are looking at some of the well-known policymakers regarded as potential ECB Executive Board candidates.
27 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With less than a year to go until the next anticipated vacancy on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board—Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to depart at the end of May 2026—we consider it timely to examine some of the policymakers regarded as potential Board candidates.
23 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Writing here on June 3, we expressed reluctance – hardly novel - to accept European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ contention that 2% would mark the terminal rate of the ECB’s easing cycle. With good reason: Stournaras himself now appears reluctant to accept it.
18 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The division within the European Central Bank Governing Council was apparent last week, but Vice President Luis de Guindos’ comments published Monday made it even clearer - not just where the lines lie, but also where common ground has emerged.
16 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As it is now established that Olaf Sleijpen will succeed Klaas Knot as President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), we have taken a closer look at Sleijpen’s record and concluded that a major shift in Dutch thinking on monetary policy at the European Central Bank is unlikely.
13 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was only one attempt during Thursday’s press conference to get European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to confirm explicitly that euro area monetary policy had reached neutral territory. She demurred, but it didn’t matter, as she managed all the same to convey the idea that the ECB was done or close to it.
5 June 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There’s no point denying the obvious. Even ultra-dovish Banca d’Italia Governor Fabio Panetta acknowledged on Friday that the European Central Bank’s room for further policy easing is narrowing.
3 June 2025
By Marta Vilar – ROME (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta on Friday offered a blunt indication that the ECB is probably nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle, accompanied by indications of openness to doing more.
30 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – When a European Central Bank Governing Council intervention is of particular interest, our own reporting is often followed by a curious look at what others make of what the policymaker said. Such was the case with Chief Economist Philip Lane’s interview Tuesday evening in German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
28 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On Friday, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on the EU of 50% from 1 June. On Sunday, he took it back, albeit merely in favour of maintaining the previous ongoing 90-day pause giving both sides time to hammer out a trade deal.
26 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Granted, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel would object to our title above, her speech early Saturday (Frankfurt time) during a conference at Stanford University having clearly been meant as a pushback against calls to take euro area interest rates ever lower.
12 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There was never much question about where European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn came down on the question of whether or not to cut interest rates again in June, but the Bank of Finland governor laid any lingering doubts to rest on Friday.
9 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ comments on Monday appear to be a cautious retreat from his earlier insistence on the likelihood of a terminal rate of 2%.
6 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Saturday seemed to encourage expectations of further easing and in any case did not in the least push back against these.
5 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Somewhat unusually, no one tried to draw out European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at Thursday’s press conference on the Governing Council’s sentiment toward a potential cut at the next monetary policy meeting on June 5.
17 April 2025