By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Two weeks after the US presidential election, the uncertainty underlying insiders’ previously hesitant comments about the impact of Donald Trump’s victory on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance remains, but policymakers are becoming increasingly outspoken.
19 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On Friday, the public discussion of European Central Bank monetary policy was augmented by a rare intervention from the newest member of the ECB’s Executive Board. Our reaction: déjà vu.
18 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It will probably be announced today that former European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos is to take over the helm of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) when current BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens steps down.
11 November 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank policymakers are nothing if not apprehensive about the US elections to take place tomorrow, given the potential implications of another Donald Trump presidency.
4 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With 26 members, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is inevitably subject to a fair degree of turnover. This year, three new faces appeared on the Council, as governors of the Bank of Spain, the Central Bank of Cyprus and the Central Bank of Malta were all replaced (the latter - for now – officially on a temporary basis).
1 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – First and foremost, we still stand by the article published here on 18 October, the main point of which was to argue that markets were ‘seeing the European Central Bank Governing Council’s decision on Thursday a tad too strongly through the prism of wishful thinking.’
31 October 2024
By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – The European Central Bank should probably undershoot its 2% price stability target at least initially, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Saturday.
28 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Financial markets, we suspect, are seeing the European Central Bank Governing Council’s decision on Thursday a tad too strongly through the prism of wishful thinking.
18 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The data at the disposal of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council during today’s monetary policy meeting must have been quite unambiguous indeed.
17 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde might be well advised to resist her usual instincts and refrain from seeking unanimous support for the rate cut we expect to emerge from this week’s Governing Council meeting.
15 October 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Faster disinflation and weaker economic growth are not the only arguments wielded by European Central Bank Governing Council members in support of a rate cut this week. Cracks in the area’s labour market are also increasingly cited by authorities wanting to ease monetary policy further.
14 October 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Right off the bat, we would like to note that we stick to the view that the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is more likely than not to cut interest rates by 25bp at its monetary policy meeting next week. Too many Council members have indicated too clearly that they favour this outcome, while too few have expressed opposition or even just uncertainty.
11 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – On a day like today, that so very German word Torschlusspanik might come to mind. Literally ‘gate-closing panic’, it refers to the fear of letting an important opportunity slip by at the last minute and is often used in the context of those worried that their marriageability is on the verge of expiration.
9 October 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – As support mounts for an interest rate cut at the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting next week, policymakers appear oddly unfazed by the dramatic impact on oil prices of rising tensions in the Middle East.
8 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Hours after our prediction one week ago that the European Central Bank’s Governing Council would cut interest rates in October, ECB President Christine Lagarde dropped what we and others considered a corroboratory hint. For those not fond of her strategic ambiguity, Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has now provided greater clarity.
7 October 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Last Thursday we outlined a path for the European Central Bank’s Governing Council to cut interest rates in October rather than wait until December. Still, an October cut was, we wrote, ‘no given yet, though the odds have clearly risen.’
30 September 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have tended to believe, with a certain conviction, that the European Central Bank’s Governing Council would stick for the time being to a quarterly pace of easing, so that the next rate cut would be in December rather than October.
26 September 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Observers of the European Central Bank who reacted with enthusiasm at the appearance of an interview with a member of its Executive Board – on this occasion Vice President Luis de Guindos, who spoke with Portuguese weekly Expresso – may have felt a tinge of disappointment to find no reference to the most interesting recent development of relevance, namely the US Federal Reserve’s decision two days ago to launch its easing cycle with a surprisingly large 50bp cut.
20 September 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Euro area wage growth may appear to be receding, based on a couple of important indicators that seem to point to a slowdown, but it would be premature for monetary policymakers to feel relief.
18 September 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Ten or so members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council have already piped up since ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference on Thursday; their comments do not, to our mind, change the outlook or contradict Lagarde.
16 September 2024