By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With a March rate cut poised to bring the European Central Bank to within just one more cut of the range it defines as neutral, the ECB may three weeks from today also find the time right to revisit its language.
13 February 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – With the trauma of the last energy crisis still fresh, the latest price spike for such commodities has European Central Bank Governing Council members vigilant but not yet overly concerned about its implications for inflation.
13 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The interview published on Thursday with European Central Bank Executive Board Piero Cipollone suggests that there is a dawning realisation on Frankfurt’s East Side that ECB monetary policy may find itself confronting a new reality sooner than some expected.
7 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Here are some aspects of the interview of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ with Slovakian business daily Hospodárske Noviny, published Wednesday, that we regard as particularly significant:
5 February 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The press conference following Thursday’s monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council was fully in line with expectations, so with nothing to indicate that the ECB is anything but clearly on track for another 25bp cut in March.
30 January 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It makes no sense to resent a meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, but if it did, then one might feel some animus precisely towards this week’s monetary policy gathering.
28 January 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland came to a close at the end of last week, but the convenient timing of the event just before the European Central Bank’s quiet period ensured a flow of comments from Governing Council members worth looking back at.
28 January 2025
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With so many members of the European Central Bank Governing Council, hawks and doves, having endorsed a gradual approach to monetary easing, pressing them on the issue of a possible 50bp cut at some point may seem downright fanciful.
17 January 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Since the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting of 12 December, a significant number of Governing Council members have been conspicuously hesitant to celebrate an immaculate disinflation for a common reason: the ongoing threat posed by high services inflation.
16 January 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Arguably, 2025 has not gotten off to the best start for the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, which is two short of the normal complement of 26 members.
16 January 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Almost three months after his appointment as governor of Banco de España, José Luis Escrivá has reinforced the initial perception that he may not become a card-carrying member of the camp of doves on the European Central Bank Governing Council.
17 December 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates in steps to 2.5% by the start of spring 2025 if its central scenario continues to materialise, according to ECB Governing Council member Gaston Reinesch on Friday.
13 December 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As in October, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde adhered again on Thursday to the ECB’s data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach to setting monetary policy. Still, the scepticism with which she responded at the press conference to a question about a potential 50bp cut next month was hard to overlook.
12 December 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – At Econostream we’ve been nothing if not consistent for almost seven weeks about playing down expectations that the European Central Bank Governing Council would cut by 50bp in December. Already on 18 October we contended that markets were indulging in wishful thinking.
10 December 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Although one large investment bank recently saw fit to change its call for the European Central Bank Governing Council’s 12 December monetary policy meeting from 25bp to 50bp, at Econostream we see little reason to doubt our expectation that the smaller option will prevail next week.
4 December 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It is no surprise that on Thursday, the day French sovereign spreads surpassed Greece’s, European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau publicly reaffirmed his devotion to a more dovish monetary policy stance.
29 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank may be able to cut interest rates further, but only gradually, according to Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch on Wednesday.
28 November 2024
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) - Like a leg straightening at the blow of a reflex hammer, markets reacted to Friday’s euro area PMI data by assuming that the stage was finally set for the European Central Bank to cut by 50bp next month. We think they are – yet again - assuming too much.
25 November 2024
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta is nothing if not persistent. Dwindling hopes of egging his peers into an outsized rate cut next month seem merely to have motivated him to try another tack to engineer more accommodation.
21 November 2024
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Governing Council’s hitherto ironclad commitment to purely data-dependent communication devoid of forward guidance is showing first cracks.
19 November 2024