By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The list of euro area officials seeking to become European Central Bank vice president when current officeholder Luis de Guindos’ term ends on June 1, 2026, has grown with the addition of a Lithuanian candidate, Econostream understands.
18 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Two days before the European Central Bank’s final monetary policy decision of the year, all meaningful signals point to a unanimous hold, a press conference focused on interpreting the updated projections and managing the risk that a stronger macro outlook is misread as a signal of impending monetary tightening, and a policy outlook that keeps rates at 2% well into 2026 absent a significant shock.
16 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The formal launch last week of the race to succeed European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos has had one immediate effect: it has made Portugal’s refusal to commit publicly to Mário Centeno look less like caution and more like strategy.
15 December 2025
ECB Comment Recap: Broad Support for Holding Rates, Some Debate Persists on Response to Inflation Deviations
12 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest intervention does not mark a new “turn” so much as the clearest consolidation of a line she has been following for months: small, forecast-based undershoots of 2% can be tolerated, while the real dangers still run to the upside.
9 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Isabel Schnabel’s interview on Monday produced one line that overshadowed the entire exchange. Asked at the very end whether she could be the German to become the next ECB president, she answered: “If I was asked, I would stand ready.”
8 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – What stood out in our interview published today with European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn was not a call for action, but the conspicuous lack of one — a shift in emphasis that, from a policymaker previously among the quickest to flag downside risks, might register as an uncharacteristically firm stance.
8 December 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Philip Lane’s Ljubljana speech on Wednesday reads like a belated attempt to pull ECB communication back toward its own strategy just as Governing Council members work to downplay the significance of what looks increasingly like another projected undershoot in 2028.
3 December 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB Tone Meter moved slightly hawkish this week, with the Governing Council reading at -0.09, which we classify as broadly neutral but still with a marginal dovish tilt, and the Executive Board at +0.20, which we view as neutral with a marginal hawkish lean.
28 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The ECB will soon unveil its first staff projections for 2028, complete with a revised profile of the inflation impact of ETS 2. On paper, that should be a big moment: an extra year of forecast, a new carbon-price shock and an inflation target that is supposed to be symmetric. In practice, Governing Council members are working to make sure it is not.
26 November 2025
- Our call (part 3): Knot to replace Lagarde; Bénassy-Quéré to be next chief economist
19 November 2025
ECB Insight: The Race for de Guindos’ Seat Begins with Centeno Quietly Making His Availability Known
13 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If it wasn’t evident previously, it is now: Martin Kocher’s arrival at the European Central Bank’s Governing Council marks a clear stylistic and substantive departure from his predecessor, Robert Holzmann.
12 November 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Until recently among the European Central Bank Governing Council’s clearest voices in favor of further rate cuts, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau has lately sounded unmistakably less eager to beat the drums for more easing.
7 November 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following Thursday’s decision to leave interest rates alone, European Central Bank Governing Council policymakers wasted little time signaling that the December Eurosystem staff projections – the first to include 2028 inflation – should not be over-interpreted.
31 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It was just as well that the European Central Bank on Thursday also decided to move to the next phase of the digital euro project, which to some degree filled the vacuum left by a monetary policy decision notably short on actual news.
30 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s policy meeting looks set to be a deliberate non-event designed to blend seamlessly into a series of non-events: rates on hold, no pre-commitment, and the same disciplined message that has dominated for months. Optionality to be preserved, not exercised.
28 October 2025
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Recent conversations by Econostream with multiple European Central Bank policymakers point to one conclusion: any lingering expectations of a December rate cut would be unrealistic unless the policy environment changed significantly.
22 October 2025
- Our call (part 2): Lane’s successor – Kazāks, Vujčić and the Dombrovskis factor
10 October 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The account of the ECB’s September Governing Council meeting reads like a textbook case for patience: inflation “close to the 2% medium-term target,” risks “on both sides,” and – as in July – “a high option value to waiting for more information.”
9 October 2025