By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras’ comments on Monday appear to be a cautious retreat from his earlier insistence on the likelihood of a terminal rate of 2%.
6 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Saturday seemed to encourage expectations of further easing and in any case did not in the least push back against these.
5 May 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Somewhat unusually, no one tried to draw out European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at Thursday’s press conference on the Governing Council’s sentiment toward a potential cut at the next monetary policy meeting on June 5.
17 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – While US President Donald Trump may have declared a 90-day pause before (reduced) tariffs take effect, and dealmaking to further cushion the blow to Europe is likely, the European Central Bank is not about to dismiss the entire tariff episode as a tempest in a teapot.
15 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In the immediate aftermath of the imposition by the US of sweeping tariffs on the rest of the world, we can’t help but notice that nobody from the European Central Bank’s Governing Council has actually suggested that this is a new reason to put the monetary policy easing process on pause this month.
4 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our last member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council was only Tuesday, but the announcement on Wednesday evening of US tariffs has led to a couple of changes ostensibly favouring a pause.
3 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Looking at European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos’ latest comments alongside those made by him previously, it is hard to escape the conclusion that he has grown suddenly less supportive of further monetary policy easing in the near term.
3 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If it ever made sense for European Central Bank Governing Council members to avoid going out on any limbs, it does now, with mere hours to go until US President Donald Trump vents and in doing so initiates a key round of the burgeoning trade conflict.
2 April 2025
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Fabio Panetta, one of the most dovish members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, sounded unexpectedly hawkish on Monday, but we hesitate to infer from this a conviction that the ECB should put its policy easing on pause the week after next.
1 April 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our last member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council eight days ago included three changes with respect to the tally of two weeks previously, all three tending to support the idea of an April cut.
1 April 2025
By David Barwick – LONDON (Econostream) – Observers of the European Central Bank who looked to Thursday evening’s event in the British capital with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel for clues about what the ECB is likely to do next may have been disappointed by the ostensible lack of such hints.
28 March 2025
- As of today, the stage is set more for another cut rather than for a pause
27 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Following our initial member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council exactly two weeks ago, it is time to take another look at where policymakers stand regarding the April decision to cut or to pause.
24 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In the review we published one week ago of where each European Central Bank Governing Council member appeared to stand with respect to April’s monetary policy decision, we had to relegate ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos to the category ‘too unclear to call’. Not anymore.
17 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Under the circumstances, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday may have been as newsworthy as it could have been.
12 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – An initial member-by-member review of the European Central Bank Governing Council with respect to the appetite to cut interest rates again in April suggests that those in favour of pausing may not be breaking down an open door.
10 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – If the natural baseline for assessing European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s performance at Thursday’s press conference as hawkish or dovish is her communication on other recent such occasions, then we must conclude that she was hawkish today.
6 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – That the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will cut by 25bp on Thursday is virtually certain; we suppose the cut will be backed unanimously, but if not, then Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann should be the whole ‘opposition’.
4 March 2025
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Here are some aspects of the interview of European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel with the FT, published Wednesday, that we regard as particularly significant:
19 February 2025
By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The shrinking of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet at the same time as interest rates are being progressively lowered is not seen by the ECB Governing Council as posing any problem or being contradictory, according to a number of insiders who spoke to Econostream recently.
18 February 2025