By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday left the evolution of monetary policy in the coming months entirely up to incoming data, except to make clear that a cut was not one of the options that stood a chance of being considered.
27 July 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Yet again, the principal outcome of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council meeting this Thursday seems beyond dispute, given the lack of any obviously adequate reason to backtrack from the 25bp rate hike consistently signalled over the last weeks. It thus once more comes down to how the ECB frames its attitude toward policy decisions ahead.
25 July 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Is the European Central Bank Governing Council’s most prominent hawk going dovish?
11 July 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank on Thursday delivered as expected by Econostream and many others, with President Christine Lagarde leaving no doubt that monetary tightening was set to continue beyond the latest 25bp hike.
15 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have no difficulty excluding the possibility of the European Central Bank Governing Council reaching any other monetary policy decision this Thursday than the one it has amply flagged of another 25bp rate hike.
13 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who had been keeping her policy views relatively under wraps, was bound to air these before the 15 June Governing Council meeting, and did so on Wednesday, just before the start of the quiet period, with comments we see as fitting the general trend toward a more dovish outlook.
7 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot on Tuesday again sounded markedly less hawkish than in the recent past, reassuring that the worst of inflation had passed, rejoicing at monetary tightening’s initial impact on the real economy, and arguing that financial stability risks warranted proceeding with further rate hikes cautiously.
6 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta on Friday weighed in, as he is wont to at carefully chosen intervals, on the state of ECB monetary policy.
2 June 2023
By Xavier D’Arcy – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The composition of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is set for a change by the end of 2023, with one influential policymaker’s term expiring and question marks over the future of three more members.
1 June 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip Lane on Tuesday said that Europe was now in part two of the current inflation story and that monetary policy should be forward-looking, maybe.
23 May 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank delivered more or less as expected on Thursday, opting to slow the pace of its tightening whilst making clear that, given the lack of a clear impact of higher borrowing costs on the real economy, this was not to be understood as the end of the hiking cycle.
4 May 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Directly following the European Central Bank Governing Council’s last monetary policy meeting, we inclined to the opinion that another 50bp hike in May was somewhat likelier than the only other reasonable alternative of 25bp.
2 May 2023
- Pre-meeting summary below of all ECB Governing Council members' policy views
27 April 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As if he heard opportunity knocking, European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno has been doubling down on his expressions of desire to see his peers start applying patience to the setting of monetary policy.
28 March 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank stuck to its guns on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde’s relatively surefooted handling of the press conference after the Governing Council meeting characterised by a calm insistence on data-dependence and watchfulness in the context of a job likely not yet done.
16 March 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – In considering what this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council will bring, we start from the observations that a 50bp hike this week across the board is probably a given despite the Silicon Valley Bank insolvency, putting the spotlight on the post-March policy outlook, and that the Council is showing signs of increasing polarisation.
15 March 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Past the habitual dovishness, other, at first glance less substantive comments published Monday in an interview with European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno may actually offer the more interesting insight into the challenge the ECB will face in maintaining the current pace of monetary tightening beyond March.
6 March 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Observers of European Central Bank monetary policy would be well advised to pay heed to the comments of Governing Council members since last week’s non-monetary policy meeting, as they leave open policy option doors that under other circumstances might have now been closing.
28 February 2023