Insights

ECB Insight: Insider Thinking on the Operational Framework

ECB Insight: De Guindos Makes Clear That the ECB Remains Firmly in a Waiting Game

By David Barwick – SPLIT, Croatia (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos on Wednesday understatedly but resolutely discouraged very short-term rate cut expectations even as he recognised the progress in disinflation so far and voiced the anticipation that this would continue.

ECB Insight: De Cos, Whilst Shunning Calendar Guidance, Now Seems Open to Rate Cut Discussion

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernández de Cos’ reluctance to pin a date to the ECB’s first rate cut should not obscure the fact that he is now apparently supportive of discussing the issue rather than continuing to keep it at arm’s length.

ECB Insight: Schnabel Pushes Back Against Market Pricing, but Carefully, Slamming No Doors

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel in her latest comments managed to convey the impression that she did not envision the first ECB rate cut coming too soon whilst skirting the mention of any calendar month or particular timing.

CEEMEA TRANSCRIPT: Interview with Polish DMO Head Karol Czarnecki

By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Following is the full transcript of the interview conducted by Econostream recently with Karol Czarnecki, Director of the Public Debt Department at the Polish Ministry of Finance.:

CEEMEA Exclusive: Polish DMO Head Czarnecki: Expect President Duda to Sign Budgetary Act

By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – Polish President Andrzej Duda will probably sign Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s budget, in the view of Karol Czarnecki, Director of the Public Debt Department at the Polish Ministry of Finance.

ECB Insight: Is Vujčić Leaning Slightly Towards April? His Comments Can Be So Understood

By David Barwick – ZAGREB (Econostream) – We interpret the comments made Tuesday by European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujčić as potentially indicating, on balance, that he is leaning towards a first rate cut in April rather than June.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Delivers as Expected, Carefully Avoiding any Hints as More Data Awaited

 By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday was more or less exactly as predicted by us in this space on Tuesday: uneventful, devoid of surprises, with the need for policy to stay restrictive reconfirmed and talk of rate cuts dismissed as premature.

ECB Insight: No Bolts out of the Blue This Week

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We have a hard time imagining surprises emerging from this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting, the stage having been so well set in the runup to the occasion.

ECB Insight: Lagarde, With a Little Help, Takes Another Misstep

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It may well be that the European Central Bank will cut rates by the summer. We see this as being only just shy of a given, and that depends very little on the wiggle room in the words ‘by the summer’.

They Said It - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members

Heads up to clients - this is a piece that we regularly feature and update on our website, summarising all recent ECB speak.   We updated it today.  You can view it at this static link.  https://www.econostream-media.com/theysaidit.html


By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is an overview of recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of 14 December, but earlier comments can still be seen in versions up to that of 08 December.

ECB Insight: Lagarde Notes Progress Towards Target While Remaining, as Expected, on Guard

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde performed much as expected on Thursday at the press conference following the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting, acknowledging progress and not slamming any doors shut as she tempered her previous almost indignant rejection of early rate cuts and focused instead on the need to collect more data.

ECB Insight: No Euphoria, No Victory Lap, No Rate Cut Talk; Lagarde Attentive and Focused

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We see the key outcome of this week’s European Central Bank Governing Council meeting as a distinct but carefully measured and limited distancing from the hawkish tone of six weeks previously.

ECB Insight: Governing Council More Than Ready to Discuss QT, but Is Lagarde?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – After kicking the QT can down the road at the European Central Bank Governing Council’s meeting in Athens at the end of October, ECB President Christine Lagarde could finally be ready to broach the subject at the next such gathering one week from today.

ECB Insight: Kazāks Comments Show Dovish Shift in Thinking

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Barring a dramatic event, one should not expect rhetorical about-faces from a central banker with well-known views; European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel came about as close to that on Tuesday as it gets.

ECB’s Kazāks: No Need Now to Cut Rates in 1H, but if Situation Changes, Our Decisions Might Change

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – There is no currently apparent need for the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy in the first half of next year, making discussion of rate cuts premature, but a change in the situation could lead to another outcome, ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks said Wednesday.

ECB Insight: Schnabel – From Saul to Paul?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It’s about time – that was our first thought on reading European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest contribution to the public discussion of the monetary policy outlook, in which she confessed to having come around to a less hawkish take on matters.

ECB’s Holzmann: ‘Please Don’t Think That This Is the Last Rate Hike and There Won’t Be Any More’

By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – No one should think that monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank has already reached an end, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Thursday.

ECB’s Holzmann: Nothing on QT Coming This Year; Can’t Separate QT Discussion From Operational Framework

By David Barwick – VIENNA (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Governing Council is unlikely to reach any decisions this year pertaining to the pace of its quantitative tightening, inasmuch as that discussion cannot take place independently of the discussion of its operational framework, Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Visco Leaves, Panetta Stays Put and Cipollone Joins

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream has updated our hawk-dove ranking to take into account the latest change in the composition of the European Central Bank Governing Council, and has also made a few tweaks to other rankings.